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⚾ MLB Best Bets & Props on Monday April 13, 2026

MLB Best Bets Guide for **Monday, April 13, 2026**
By Updated:No Comments16 Mins Read

Get ready for Monday’s loaded 10-game MLB slate with our comprehensive betting guide. We break down the top moneyline targets, including strong value on the Pirates and Dodgers, along with expert NRFI predictions and high-value player props.

The spotlight shines on Paul Skenes in a dominant matchup against the Nationals, while Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sánchez headline elite strikeout prop opportunities in what shapes up to be a high-edge night across the board.

BEST MONEY LINE BETS

🎯 Cleveland Guardians ML -115 ✅ (vs. St. Louis Cardinals | Busch Stadium | 7:45 PM ET)

Matchup provides strong flat-line value in what shapes up as a pitching-dominant matchup. Gavin Williams (1-1, 2.04 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 17⅔ innings) has been one of the most dominant arms in the early season, while Matthew Liberatore (-L) has shown flashes for St. Louis but lacks the pedigree to neutralize Cleveland’s dangerous lineup. The Guardians are 9-7 on the season and rolling, while the Cardinals sit at 8-7 with offensive inconsistency. At -115, this is one of the best unit-value moneyline plays on the board.

🎯 Athletics ML (+110) vs. Texas Rangers — 9:40 PM ET ❌

BEST RUN LINE BETS

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+105) ✅ vs. Washington Nationals

The outright best run line play of the day, and perhaps the week. The combination of Paul Skenes’s dominant stuff against a Washington lineup that cannot hit him (.111 average, .197 wOBA) creates a compelling path to a multi-run Pittsburgh victory. Skenes has been particularly sharp over his last two starts, and PNC Park sets up as a strong pitcher’s environment tonight. Backing the Pirates to win by two or more at plus money (+104) is extraordinary value for what projects as a near-lock pitching dominant outcome.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125)✅ vs. New York Mets

This gives bettors yet another run line opportunity at plus money against a pitcher (David Peterson) who is giving up nearly two hits per inning. The Dodgers (11-4) have been dominant at home all season, and with the Mets’ defensive efficiency ranking near the bottom of the league, expect Dodger Stadium to see a multi-run home win. At +116, this is terrific risk-adjusted value.

New York Yankees -1.5 (+110) ❌ vs. Los Angeles Angels

round out the elite run line slate. Yusei Kikuchi carries a 6.75 ERA through three 2026 starts and now faces a Yankees lineup that obliterates left-handed pitching. Will Warren has been more than adequate on the other side (3.07 ERA), and with 70°F temperatures and 16 MPH winds blowing out to center field at Yankee Stadium, the home side is set up for a shootout on their terms. The Angels’ lineup, despite having Jorge Soler in the mix, cannot keep pace with New York’s firepower.

BEST 1st 5 INNINGS BETS

🎯Boston Red Sox F5 -0.5 Runline (-120) ❌ (vs.Twins | 7:40 PM ET)

This matchup leverages one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the game. Garrett Crochet (3.12 ERA, 2.54 FIP) has been a revelation in 2026, averaging more than one strikeout per inning pitched. The Twins rank below league average in both contact rate and strikeout rate, setting up Crochet to dominate the first five innings thoroughly. Backing Boston to lead or win after five innings capitalizes on Crochet’s dominance before the Red Sox bullpen factors

🎯 Los Angeles Dodgers F5 Moneyline (-135 ) ✅ (vs. NY Mets | 10:10 PM ET)

Another sharp first-five play given David Peterson’s alarming 1.841 WHIP. Peterson has been giving up 2 hits per inning pitched, and the Dodgers’ lineup — ranking top-2 in virtually every offensive category — projects to punish him early and often. The first five innings should be all Dodgers before either team’s bullpen takes over.

BEST GAME TOTAL BETS

↕️ Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 (+100) ✅ at Yankee Stadium (7:05 PM ET)

The day’s signature total play and was named SportsGrid’s Best Bet #2 for Monday’s slate. The convergence of factors here is extraordinary: 70-degree temperatures, 16 MPH winds blowing out to center field, Yusei Kikuchi with a 6.75 ERA facing a Yankees lineup that historically crushes left-handed starters, and a Will Warren counterpart who, while decent (3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), is far from untouchable. The Angels’ lineup features Jorge Soler, who has homered in three of his last five games, further amplifying the over potential. Getting even money on a total that has all environmental and matchup factors pointing skyward is a rare gift.

↕️Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 ✅

This play earns endorsement from multiple trend models which issue a “PLAY OVER” signal specifically for this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as one of the top home run-friendly parks in baseball, and Arizona’s Ryne Nelson has already allowed multiple home runs in two of his three 2026 starts. With Baltimore’s lineup featuring power threats like Gunnar Henderson (6 HR already) and Pete Alonso, and Nelson carrying a high fly-ball rate paired with a 42% hard-hit rate against him, expect a slugfest in Baltimore tonight.

↕️Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 (-114) ✅

The system endorsement for the over, with Mike Burrows carrying a 5.63 ERA for Houston coming into this game. The Mariners (7-9) are favored at home behind George Kirby, but the computer model also projects this game to go over. Both offenses have the capacity to contribute, and Mike Burrows has shown volatility this season.

↕️Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8 (-105) ✅

The computer model support, as Bleacher Nation’s system projects scoring in this matchup to exceed the 8-run total. While Gavin Williams has been dominant, St. Louis’s offense has shown it can manufacture runs against premium arms, and Matthew Liberatore’s fly-ball tendencies could be exploited by Cleveland’s deep lineup

↕️Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 -115 ✅

↕️New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 8.5 (-105) ✅

BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS

🎯 Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total OVER 4.5 (-120) ❌

The day’s most clinically sound team total. David Peterson’s 1.841 WHIP speaks for itself — he has been surrendering baserunners at an alarming rate. The Dodgers rank in the top-2 in virtually every offensive metric in baseball (hit rate, RBIs, runs scored, OBP, OPS), and they’re playing at home where they’ve been dominant all season. In 2026, Peterson’s combination of surrendering two hits per inning and New York’s poor defensive efficiency behind him essentially gifts the Dodgers traffic all night. At -125, this team total over is a clean and professional lean

New York Yankees Team Total OVER 5.5 (-130) ✅ (vs. LAA | 7:05 PM ET)

The complementary team total play to the game total over in that matchup. Yusei Kikuchi’s 6.75 ERA and high fly-ball rate against a Yankees lineup that punishes left-handed pitching makes the Yankees’ run-scoring total one of the day’s safest over plays. With 16 MPH winds blowing out to center field at Yankee Stadium, Aaron Judge and the rest of New York’s power bats should do serious damage

Atlanta Braves Team Total OVER 4.5 (+105) ❌ vs. MIA | 7:15 PM ET)

This leverages the Braves’ renaissance against an Eury Perez who has struggled mightily with his command (3 walks per game average, 5.06 ERA, 6.18 FIP). Atlanta has fully recovered from last year’s injury carnage and now ranks in the top-10 in both contact rate and OBP. The Braves are at home at Truist Park and should be able to exploit Perez’s high WHIP of 1.375 for consistent offensive production. The over on the Braves’ team total is underpriced given Perez’s profile

🎯 Athletics Team Total — OVER 3.5 Runs (-122) ❌

BEST NRFI (NO Run in First Inning)

🎯 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (+115) ❌ | PNC Park | 6:40 PM ET

The day’s most undervalued NRFI play, with the BetMGM predictive model giving it the highest confidence rating on the board at 58.1% — the only pick to crack the 55% confidence threshold. Paul Skenes, despite his current 5.25 ERA, carries a remarkable 86.2% career NRFI rate, the highest of any probable starter in this entire slate. Cameron Cavalli, though volatile, was clean in his first start. That you can back the highest-confidence NRFI model pick at plus money (+115) is a significant overlay.

BEST RFI (Run SCORED in First Inning YES)

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees RFI YES (-120) ✅

BEST PITCHER PROPS

🎯 Garrett Crochet [Boston Red Sox] OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-115) ❌

Top-ranked strikeout prop bet for Monday and is widely regarded as the day’s safest pitcher prop. Crochet’s 2026 stats are outright terrifying: a 3.12 ERA, a remarkable 2.54 FIP, and an average of more than one strikeout per inning pitched. The Minnesota Twins are the ideal opponent — they rank below league average in both contact rate and strikeout rate, which means they whiff often and rarely make hard contact. Crochet’s season average is running at approximately 7.7 strikeouts per start through his first three 2026 outings, making the 7.5 line beatable at almost any price. Through three starts, he’s tallied 23 strikeouts.

Cristopher Sanchez [Philadelphia Phillies] OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) ✅

The most-bet pitching prop of the entire Monday slate on DraftKings. Sanchez has been extraordinary in 2026, posting a 1.65 ERA, a 1.06 FIP, and amassing 23 strikeouts in just 16⅓ innings — a K/9 of 12.6 and a per-start average of 7.7 strikeouts. His 2026 xERA of 3.14 confirms that his dominance is not a fluke. Getting +109 on a pitcher averaging 7.7 K per start against a Cubs team that can be neutralized by elite southpaws is a remarkable opportunity. The fact that this is the most-bet pitching prop in the market validates the value

Paul Skenes [Pittsburgh Pirates] OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115) ❌ (WAS @ PIT)

This gives bettors a chance to cash in on an elite arm against a Washington lineup that has compiled just a .111 average and .197 wOBA against Skenes in current hitter matchups. Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, returned to form his last two outings — allowing only two earned runs over 11.1 innings. His elite strikeout stuff remains fully intact, and Nationals hitters who can’t hit him certainly can’t avoid striking out against him. The 6.5 line is very manageable for a pitcher of Skenes’s caliber.

BEST PLAYER PROPS

🎯 Byron Buxton [Minnesota Twins] UNDER 0.5 Total Hits (+150) ❌

This prop offers exceptional value at plus money. Buxton has been dreadful to open the 2026 season — just a .182 batting average and a .531 OPS through 14 games. Against Garrett Crochet, who generates whiffs at a historic rate with pinpoint accuracy, Buxton’s lack of contact and ability to generate good at-bats becomes even more pronounced. Getting +130 that a struggling hitter goes hitless against the most dominant pitcher in the game today is outstanding value on a player who is genuinely in a deep slump.

📊 Exclusive OVER UNDER DAILY Data Analytic suggested picks 💹

🎯 Pete Alonso [BAL] OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) ✅

🎯Brandon Nimmo(TEX) OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+160)

🎯Drake Baldwin (ATL) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) ✅

🎯Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) ✅

🎯Miguel Rojas (LAD) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) ✅

BEST HOME RUN PROPS

🎯 Gunnar Henderson [Baltimore Orioles] Home Run (+320) ❌

This HR prop headlines the entire Monday HR prop slate and is endorsed by multiple expert sources. Henderson is already off to a blazing power start with 6 home runs on the season — ranking among league leaders — with 9 of his 15 hits going for extra bases and a current six-game hitting streak that includes 4 home runs. He faces Arizona’s Ryne Nelson, who carries one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball paired with a 42% hard-hit rate against him and has already allowed multiple home runs in 2 of his 3 starts. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the third-best park for home runs in baseball. Henderson is also 2-for-4 with a home run against Nelson historically. Covers.com projects this prop closer to +380, meaning +470 represents massive positive expected value

Aaron Judge [New York Yankees] Home Run (+180) ✅ | LAA @ NYY | 7:05 PM ET)

This is the day’s most-bet home run prop by ticket volume — and the lowest-priced one on the board, reflecting just how much the market loves this spot. Judge faces Yusei Kikuchi (6.75 ERA), a left-hander who generates heavy fly-ball contact and is leaking hard-hit balls at a 48% rate. The 70-degree weather and 16 MPH winds blowing out to center at Yankee Stadium create a near-perfect home run environment. Judge hitting one out at +205 is a legitimate smash value play. 

Shohei Ohtani [Los Angeles Dodgers] Home Run (+245) ❌ | NYM @ LAD | 10:10 PM ET)

This one is the day’s premium late-game HR play. Ohtani faces David Peterson, who is surrendering 2 hits per inning with a 1.841 WHIP, at Dodger Stadium — where the Dodgers are at their most dangerous. Ohtani’s power profile is simply world-class, and Peterson does not possess the stuff to contain him when he locks onto a pitch. At +255 against a reachable left-hander at home, this is outstanding value on the sport’s most marketable superstar

Shea Langeliers [Athletics] Home Run (+390) ❌ TEX @ ATH | 9:40 PM ET)

This is the day’s second-most compelling HR prop behind Henderson. Langeliers has gone deep 5 times already this season without the author having money on him — until now. He faces Nathan Eovaldi, who has yet to pitch a game without allowing a home run in 2026. Langeliers owns a history against Eovaldi (4-for-12 with a HR), the game is at Sutter Health Park where pitchers consistently struggle, and the Rangers’ bullpen features four left-handers that Langeliers can further punish since he crushes southpaws. His OPS is north of .900 on the season. Covers.com projects this at +390-400 fair value, making +470 a generous plus.

Kyle Schwarber [Philadelphia Phillies] Home Run (+210) ✅ ✅ | CHC @ PHI | 6:40 PM ET)

This one rides the wave of the Phillies’ offense against a Cubs starter. Schwarber’s elite left-handed power at Citizens Bank Park — one of the game’s most homer-friendly venues — paired with a manageable price of +213 makes this a recurring sharp play in betting circles

Will Smith [Los Angeles Dodgers] Home Run (+475) ❌

 This prop pairs beautifully with the Dodgers’ dominant offensive projection against David Peterson. Smith gets the advantage of facing a left-handed starter at home, which is historically his best split. At +470 on a catcher with legitimate home run power in an explosive Dodger lineup, this is a deep-value HR play

Brandon Lowe [Pittsburgh Pirates] Home Run (+525) ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

This is the day’s long-shot HR value play. FanDuel’s research team highlights Lowe as being in his best offensive split against tonight’s Nationals starter, and at +540 there is legitimate upside if he connects. PNC Park can be hitter-friendly in the right conditions, and with Pittsburgh expected to win comfortably, Lowe will likely get his plate appearances in a relaxed offensive environment.

📊 Exclusive OVER UNDER DAILY Data Analytic suggested picks 💹

🎯 Pete Alonso [BAL] Home Run (+290) ✅ ✅ ✅

🎯Drake Baldwin (ATL) Home Run (+450) ❌

2️⃣BEST HOME RUN PROPS PARLAY🔢

🔥 2-Leg Home Run Parlay:

Pete Alonso [BAL] Home Run (+290) ✅
Shea Langeliers [Athletics] Home Run (+390) ❌

Approximate odds +1811, means $100 bet = $1,911 ❌
(Round Robin strongly recommended)

2️⃣BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY🔢

Athletics ML (+110) ❌
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 (+100) ✅

Approximate odds +320, means $100 bet = $420 payout ❌

3️⃣BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY🔢

Drake Baldwin (ATL) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) ✅
New York Yankees -1.5 (+110) ❌
Atlanta Braves Team Total OVER 4.5 (+105) ❌

Approximate odds +695, means $100 bet = $795 ❌

4️⃣BEST 4-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY🔢

Pete Alonso [BAL] OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) ✅
New York Yankees Team Total OVER 5.5 (-130) ✅
Cleveland Guardians ML -115 ✅
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 -115 ✅

Approximate odds +976, means $100 bet = $1,076 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

The four-leg power parlay combines three of the afternoon’s strongest analytical plays.

⚠️ Disclaimer: All bets carry inherent risk. This analysis is for entertainment and informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

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