Get ready for a thrilling Sunday Night Baseball clash as the Atlanta Braves (0-3) send rookie AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound against the red-hot San Diego Padres (3-0) and veteran Nick Pivetta. With the Padres dominating this series, sharp bettors are eyeing value in run lines and strikeout props, while casual fans chase home run heroics from stars like Marcell Ozuna and Fernando Tatis Jr. Dive into the sharpest bets and hottest props for this 7:10 PM ET showdown at Petco Park!
Money Line: Padres Favored, but Braves Tempting Underdogs
BEST BET: Atlanta Braves to finally Win a game Money Line (+115):
Popular with underdog bettors, the Braves boast a loaded offense, think Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson—that could finally wake up against Pivetta, who’s posted a 4.93 ERA against them historically.
BEST BET: Over 8 (-105): Sharp bettors see runs brewing, Pivetta’s allowed power to Atlanta hitters, and Smith-Shawver’s control issues (4.2 BB/9) could spark a Padres rally, but Braves are not the team that going to loose forever, and in order to have chance to change their fortune, they must score runs, and some decent number of them.
Pitcher Props: Strikeouts and Struggles
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130): Pivetta’s 9.8 K/9 last season and Atlanta’s 1,461 strikeouts in 2024 make this a sharp favorite.
- AJ Smith-Shawver OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-106): With just 7.3 K/9 in his career and a disciplined Padres lineup (16.5% K-rate vs. righties), this is a popular fade. However the line moved from 4.5 to 3.5, which makes OVER 3.5 K smart bet.
- Pivetta Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120): Atlanta’s stars can make contact—Pivetta’s 8.6 H/9 career mark backs this sharp play.
- Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105): After coughing up 3 runs in 1.1 innings to San Diego last postseason, this is a trendy pick against Tatis, Machado, and co.
Player Props: Stars in the Spotlight
- Marcell Ozuna HR (+350): Ozuna’s 39 bombs in 2024 and 4 HRs in 10 games vs. San Diego make this a fan-favorite longshot.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits (+184): Tatis is torching Atlanta early, and Smith-Shawver’s inexperience fuels this sharp combo.
- Manny Machado RBI (+140): If Machado (calf) plays, his 105 RBI from 2024 make this a sharp bet against a green pitcher.
Key Factors to Watch
The Padres’ bullpen has slammed the door late (no runs allowed in Atlanta’s last 12 innings), while the Braves rank 9th in projected bullpen strength—late-game runs could hinge on relievers. Petco’s cool night air might cap power, but both lineups have the juice to defy it. Keep an eye on Machado’s status; his bat could tilt the scales.
Whether you’re a sharp chasing value or a fan betting on your gut, this Braves-Padres clash offers something for everyone. Check live odds as game time nears, lineups and betting action could shift the numbers. Play smart, and enjoy the show!
