Our comprehensive betting guide breaks down today’s 13-game MLB slate, highlighting top money-line values (Rays, Pirates, Braves), run line favorites (Yankees, Dodgers), and best first-five and total plays. Dive into premium NRFI picks, pitcher and hitter prop bets — from Casey Mize strikeouts to high-odds home run specials — plus curated 2- to 4-leg parlays designed to maximize your profit potential on August 4.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+104) vs Los Angeles Angels
Adrian Houser’s first start with the Rays comes against struggling Yusei Kikuchi, who has posted a 5.26 ERA over his last five starts with elevated hard-hit rates. The Rays’ development staff should optimize Houser’s ground-ball profile, while Ha-seong Kim’s return from the IL strengthens their lineup against lefties.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+108) ML ✅ vs San Francisco Giants
Reverse line movement favors Pittsburgh despite only 22% of money backing them. The line has dropped from +136 to nearly even money. Pirates enter 7-3 in their last 10 games and 4-1 at home in their last five, while the Giants have lost seven of their last 10.
Atlanta Braves (+118) ML ❌ vs Milwaukee Brewers
Despite Erick Fedde starting instead of Spencer Strider, Atlanta offers value as home underdogs. The Brewers are considerably worse on the road, and Quinn Priester’s away splits show vulnerability (3.47 ERA, .266 BAA vs 3.04 ERA, .202 BAA at home).
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+115) ✅
St. Louis Cardinals ML (+153) ✅
Texas Rangers ML (+125) ✅
BEST RUN LINE BETS
New York Mets -1.5 (+115) vs Cleveland Guardians ❌
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+105) ✅
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-140) ✅
BEST 1st 5 INNINGS BETS
New York Yankees/Texas Rangers First Five Innings Under 4 (-110) ❌
Both Max Fried and Patrick Corbin have shown strong early-game performance this season. Fried’s exceptional control (125 K vs 32 BB) suggests he’ll keep the Rangers’ offense in check through five innings.
Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings ML (+110) ❌
Adrian Houser’s 2.10 ERA and strong ground-ball rate (47.5%) should neutralize the Angels’ lineup early. Yusei Kikuchi’s regression indicators (4.34 xERA, elevated hard-hit rate) suggest the Rays can score early.
Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings Run Line –0.5 (-135) ✅
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers First Five Innings Under 4 (-110) ✅
BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox OVER 9 (-120) ✅
Bailey Falter’s exceptional extension should help his fastball play up, while the Royals’ pitching development staff can optimize his contact-management approach. Brayan Bello hasn’t allowed more than three runs since June 9, and both teams have struggled offensively in the second half.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Over 7.0 (-115) ❌
Both teams’ offensive capabilities combined with questionable starting pitching make this total attractive. The matchup favors run production at Wrigley Field.
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Over 7.5 (-110) ✅
Despite strong pitching from Max Fried, both lineups have enough offensive firepower to push this total over, especially with the Yankees motivated after their weekend sweep.
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (-133) ✅
The Phillies average just under five runs per game both season-long and in their last five at home. Baltimore’s Cade Povich brings a 5.15 ERA and 5.96 ERA over his last four starts, making this total very achievable for a heavy favorite.
Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 6.5 (-128) ✅
Colorado’s pitching staff allows six runs per game and has surrendered 79 runs in their last eight games. Tanner Gordon sports a 4.85 ERA and allowed six earned runs over three innings in his last start. The Coors Field environment and 11.5 implied game total support this bet.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers NRFI (-130) ❌
Max Fried holds a 2.88 road ERA and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 16 of his 22 starts. Patrick Corbin has a 3.10 home ERA and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 17 of 20 starts. Both teams rank bottom-five in batting average since the All-Star break.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels NRFI (-130) ❌
Yusei Kikuchi has a 2.48 home ERA and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 15 of 23 starts. Adrian Houser boasts a 2.10 ERA and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 10 of 11 starts. The Rays are the second-worst first-inning scoring team on the road.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Sean Manaea (NY Mets) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) ✅
Manaea’s pitch counts have been increasing (65, 69, 82, 86), and his 32.4% strikeout rate against Cleveland’s weak lineup vs lefties (87 wRC+) projects to 6.15 strikeouts.
Yusei Kikuchi (LA Angels) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125) ✅
The “safest pick of the day” with 132 strikeouts over 128 innings and a strong 9.3 K/9 rate. His consistency in generating swings and misses makes this the most reliable strikeout prop.
Quinn Priester (Brewers) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) ❌
Priester recorded seven strikeouts against Atlanta in his last meeting and has increased his cutter usage to 22.2% over his last nine starts, generating a 25.1% strikeout rate.
Erick Fedde (Atlanta Braves) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115) ✅
In his Braves debut, Fedde managed just three strikeouts in 4⅔ innings. Milwaukee has strong plate discipline with a 19.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers) OVER 1.5 + Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150) ❌
Yelich has been crushing sinkers and owns a .447 wOBA and .244 ISO against them. Erick Fedde has allowed a .379 wOBA and 11 of 15 home runs to left-handed hitters.
Juan Soto (NY Mets) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130) ✅
MLB model projects Soto for 2.66 HRR, providing an 8.53% edge on this line. The Prop Shop confirms this as the best available line.
William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) OVER 1.5 + Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) ❌
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Arizona Diamondbacks) OVER 1.5 + Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145) ✅
Luis Arráez (San Diego Padres) OVER 1.5 Bases (-130) ❌
Luis Arráez (San Diego Padres) OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) ❌
Austin Slater (NY Yankees) OVER 0.5 RBI (+235) ❌
Jake Cronenworth (San Diego Padres) OVER 1.5 Hits (+245) ❌
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers) Home Run (+600) ✅
Yelich leads Milwaukee with 21 home runs and has seven hits in his last three games. The model shows his home run odds at +346, making +625 exceptional value against Erick Fedde’s struggles.
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Home Runs (+560) ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Despite only 13 home runs this season, Bichette is hitting .400 with a .569 slugging percentage over the last 15 days. He faces Tanner Gordon, who allows right-handers to hit .367 with a .571 slugging percentage.
Teoscar Hernández (LA Dodgers) Home Run (+450)
Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) Home Run (+360) ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS PARLAY🏆
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers) Home Run (+600)
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays) Home Runs (+400) ✅
- Teoscar Hernández (LA Dodgers) Home Run (+450)
- Giancarlo Stanton (NY Yankees) Home Run (+360) ✅
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $17,241 ⭐ PAID $303.6 ✅ ✅ ✅
Weather conditions across all games on August 4th appear favorable for baseball, with clear skies expected at most venues and no precipitation forecasts that would significantly impact play.
Betting Strategy Notes:
- Several sportsbooks are offering profit boosts on 3+ leg parlays for August 4th
- Sharp money indicators suggest value on underdogs Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay
- Home run props offer exceptional value with multiple pitchers showing vulnerability
- NRFI bets provide solid value with strong pitcher matchups early in games
- Team totals in Colorado and Philadelphia offer the best offensive opportunities
All odds and lines subject to change. Please verify current pricing at your preferred sportsbook before placing wagers.
