Covering 11 games on the Thursday slate, this article delivers expert picks and statistical insights across moneylines, run lines, totals (including NRFI), team scoring props, pitcher and player prop bets, home run specials, and optimized parlays to target the highest-value MLB wagers for July 10, 2025.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Texas Rangers (-107) vs. Los Angeles Angels ✅
The Rangers are primed for revenge after last night’s 11-8 loss. Texas has quietly improved offensively, scoring 145 runs since June 10th (third-most in MLB). Patrick Corbin has been reborn this season with a 4.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 88.1 innings. The Angels counter with Jack Kochanowicz (5.42 ERA), who rarely pitches deep into games, exposing their weak bullpen. The Angels’ .216 batting average against left-handed pitching is the second-worst in baseball, making this a favorable matchup for the visiting Rangers.
New York Yankees ML (-105) ✅
Boston Red Sox ML (-110) ✅
BEST RUN LINE BETS
Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line (-120) ❌
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+125) vs. Miami Marlins ✅
The Reds’ home field advantage combined with Nick Lodolo’s quality pitching creates value on the run line. Cincinnati has been solid at Great American Ball Park, while Miami’s road struggles continue with Cal Quantrill’s 5.40 ERA creating vulnerability.
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox OVER 9 (-120) ❌
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres OVER 8.5 (-115) ❌
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals OVER 9 (-105) 🟠
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4.5 (+115) ❌
The Nationals have averaged 5.1 runs per game in July and face Miles Mikolas, who has been completely ineffective with a 5.26 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Washington’s recent offensive surge, combined with Mikolas’ struggles, makes this team total very appealing.
Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) ❌
The Red Sox have more productive bats than Tampa Bay, with 120 home runs and 477 runs scored compared to the Rays’ 103 homers and 441 runs. Facing a Rays pitching staff that has been inconsistent, Boston should reach this total at Fenway Park.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox – NRFI (-122) 🟠
The Guardians rank 29th in both YRFI rate (23.1%) and first-inning runs per game (0.34), making them ideal for NRFI betting. Jonathan Cannon shows reverse splits with a solid 4.29 xFIP and 21.4% strikeout rate versus lefties. Logan Allen has pitched 13 scoreless first innings in 16 starts while limiting hard contact (34.2% hard-hit rate). The White Sox strike out at a 30.3% rate in the first inning against left-handed pitching.
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics – NRFI (+116) ❌
Despite the 100-degree heat and 10.0 run total, both starters excel in first innings. JP Sears has recorded NRFIs in 17 of 18 first innings with a 24.1% strikeout rate in the opening frame. The Braves hit poorly against left-handed pitching in the first inning (31.9% K rate, .142 ISO). Spencer Strider has eight scoreless first innings in 10 starts with a 2.83 first-inning xFIP and 31.1% strikeout rate.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+116) ❌
While Strider’s velocity and slider usage have improved, park factors work against him. His 32.2% strikeout rate over five starts projects to 6.99 strikeouts when adjusted for Sutter Health Park’s less favorable strikeout environment compared to Truist Park. The plus money makes this an excellent value play.
Patrick Corbin (Texas Rangers) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+106) ✅
Corbin’s renaissance continues with a 4.18 ERA over 16 starts. He faces the Angels, who have a 26.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and rarely draw walks. His efficient style allows him to pitch deep into games, and the favorable matchup projects to 5.19 strikeouts.
Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122) ❌
Allen faces the White Sox, who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching. His increased changeup usage has raised his strikeout rate to 18.9% over his last nine starts. The strong matchup and Allen’s ability to pitch deep projects to 5.60 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) ❌
Lodolo leads the Reds with 93 strikeouts and has cleared 5.5 in five of his last 10 starts. He threw eight strikeouts in his last outing and has exceeded this total in two of his last four starts against Miami. The Marlins’ lineup provides a favorable matchup for strikeout accumulation.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135) ✅
Crawford has been exceptional against right-handed pitching with a .317 average and .401 OBP. He faces Marcus Stroman, who has been horrific with a 7.45 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Left-handed hitters are crushing Stroman (.292 AVG, .313 ISO, .950 OPS), and Crawford’s leadoff spot with strong lineup support behind him makes this prop very attractive.
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds) Over 1.5 Hits (+180) ✅
De La Cruz leads the Reds in home runs (18), RBI (62), and hits (99). He’s gone over 1.5 hits in eight of his last 15 games and owns a .425 batting average with 17 hits in his last 10 games against the Marlins. Last night’s 2-for-4 performance with two doubles shows he’s locked in.
Manny Machado (San Diego Padres) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135) ✅
Machado has been dominant against left-handed pitching with a .375 wOBA, .884 OPS, and 16.7% barrel rate. Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled mightily with a 5.78 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, and his inability to keep runners off base gives Machado excellent RBI opportunities.
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) (+220) ❌
Judge is hitting .360 with 34 home runs and has been unstoppable in July (.429 AVG, 4 HR in 8 games). He’s homered in three of his last five games and had back-to-back home run games earlier this week. While Bryan Woo is quality, Judge has allowed 14 home runs in 17 starts, and when Judge is this hot, no pitcher is safe.
Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays) (+500) ❌
Aranda is hitting .327 with 11 home runs and faces Walker Buehler, who has been terrible with a 6.25 ERA and 15 home runs allowed in 15 starts. Aranda is 2-for-4 lifetime against Buehler with one home run, and all 11 of his 2025 homers have come against righties. Buehler has allowed seven home runs in his last six outings.
Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds) (+600) ❌
THE BAT X projects McLain to record 0.21 home runs with a 19% chance of at least one homer, while oddsmakers imply only 16%. This creates significant value on the over at +600 odds.
4️⃣ BEST 4-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+1260)
New York Yankees ML (-105) ✅
Boston Red Sox ML (-110) ✅
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres OVER 8.5 (-115) ❌
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals OVER 9 (-105)-105 🟠
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $,1260
This parlay combines the best money line values with strong prop bets. Each leg has solid analytical backing.
All odds and analysis current as of July 10, 2025. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
