Tuesday’s MLB slate features 11 compelling games with exceptional betting opportunities across multiple markets. Our comprehensive analysis covers the most promising wagers based on expert recommendations, statistical analysis, and current form. Here are the smartest betting plays for August 5, 2025.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Houston Astros ML (-105) at Miami Marlins The Astros present excellent value as slight road favorites against a struggling Marlins team. Houston sits atop the AL West at 63-50 and brings superior pitching depth and offensive consistency to this matchup.
New York Yankees ML (+112) at Texas Rangers The Yankees offer tremendous value as road underdogs despite their superior talent and recent form. This represents one of the strongest money line plays of the slate, with New York expected to bounce back after recent struggles.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+125) vs SF Giants
Minnesota Twins ML (+133) at Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians ML (+140) at NY Mets
BEST RUN LINE BETS
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Run Line (+120) at Atlanta Braves Despite being road favorites, the Brewers offer solid value on the run line against an Atlanta team that has struggled with consistency. Milwaukee’s superior pitching staff gives them the edge needed to cover the spread.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 Run Line (-110) vs Chicago White Sox With a 68.92% win probability, the Mariners are positioned to dominate the White Sox at home. Seattle’s pitching advantage and home field make the run line an attractive option.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Run Line (+150)
BEST 1st 5 INNINGS BETS
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Under 4.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
This matchup features elite pitching with Garrett Crochet taking the mound for Boston. Crochet’s 2.23 ERA and 31% strikeout rate against a Kansas City offense that ranks 25th in OPS (.687) creates a perfect storm for under betting.
Washington Nationals -0.5 First 5 Innings (+110) vs Oakland Athletics
The Nationals present exceptional value on the first-five-inning run line, taking advantage of their home field advantage and favorable pitching matchup. This bet focuses on early-game execution where Washington has shown consistent strength
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Under 7.5 (+105)
Two strong pitching performances are expected with Garrett Crochet’s dominant form meeting Kansas City’s contact-oriented approach. The under presents solid value in what should be a pitcher’s duel.
Houston Astros at Miami Marlins Over 8 (-110)
The Astros’ powerful offense facing Miami’s inconsistent pitching creates an ideal over scenario. Both teams have shown offensive capability, making this total vulnerable.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Under 7.5 (-113)
Strong pitching from both sides, particularly Milwaukee’s staff, suggests this total is set too high for what should be a low-scoring affair.
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies OVER 9.5 (-120)
Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies OVER 11.5 (-110)
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Toronto Blue Jays Over 6.5 Runs (-135) Following their 15-run explosion, the Blue Jays face Anthony Molina, who carries a 6.85 ERA in his limited MLB appearances. The offensive momentum and favorable matchup make this an excellent play.
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-110) The Dodgers boast an MLB-best .815 OPS at home and face Miles Mikolas, who has struggled with a 6.43 ERA and .337 opponent batting average in first innings on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies TEAM TOTAL Over 4.5 (-145)
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox NRFI (-140) ✅
This represents the strongest NRFI play of the slate. Garrett Crochet’s elite 2.23 ERA and 31% strikeout rate faces a Royals offense that ranks 25th in OPS (.687), dropping to .662 against left-handed pitching. Additionally, rookie Ryan Bergert hasn’t allowed a single run in the first inning across seven starts, holding opponents to just a .045 batting average in that frame.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-130) ❌
Both teams have shown tendencies toward slow starts, and the pitching matchup suggests limited early offense potential.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Despite Kansas City’s low strikeout rate, Crochet is inevitable. The left-hander ranks second in the American League in strikeouts, recording eight or more in 13 of his 22 starts overall and eight of his last 11. His extended rest should allow him to reach 100 pitches, maximizing strikeout opportunities.
Luis Severino (Athletics) Under 2.5 Runs Allowed (-105) Severino has been in excellent form, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts (2.49 ERA, 2.51 FIP). His extreme home-road splits favor this road start, where he maintains a 3.03 ERA away from home.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Juan Soto (NY Mets) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120)
FTN’s MLB model projects Soto for 2.68 HRR, providing a 10.75% edge on this prop. His consistent production and favorable matchup make this an exceptional value play.
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) Schwarber’s power potential against right-handed pitching creates excellent value in this market, particularly given his recent form and favorable ballpark conditions.
Ketel Marte (Arizona D-Backs) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Ketel Marte (Arizona D-Backs) Over 1.5 Bases (+100)
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers) Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110)
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers) Over 1.5 Bases (-118)
Christian Walker (Houston Astros) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres) Over 1.5 Bases (-120)
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres) Home Run (+425)
Tatis leads our home run recommendations with his elite power numbers and favorable matchup conditions.
Nick Kurtz (Athletics) Home Run (+525)
The Athletics’ first baseman faces MacKenzie Gore, a reverse-splits lefty who represents an above-average matchup for left-handed power. The odds offer significant value compared to true probability.
Juan Soto (NY Mets) Home Run (+325)
Soto faces a favorable matchup with projected true odds around +275, making this an excellent expected value bet.
Brent Rooker (Athletics) Home Run (+350)
The Athletics slugger offers solid value with his consistent power production.
Logan O’Hoppe (LA Angels) Home Run (+350) O’Hoppe faces Ryan Pepiot, who has surrendered 1.85 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. The true odds are projected around +350, creating excellent value.
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS ROUND ROBIN PARLAY 🏆
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+425) + Kurtz (+350) + Soto (+325) + Logan O’Hoppe (+350)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $9,730
2️⃣ 2-LEG AGGRESSIVE HOME RUN PARLAY OF THE DAY (+1812)
Alternative Conservative Parlay: Brent Rooker (+350) + Juan Soto (+325)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $1,812
A two-leg approach focusing on the highest-value individual picks, offering solid payout potential with better probability.
2️⃣ BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
Houston Astros ML (-110) + Under 8.5 (-120) Total
This combination leverages the Astros’ road value while capitalizing on what should be a controlled, lower-scoring game. The synergy between these picks offers enhanced value compared to individual wagers.
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $250
3️⃣ BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+560)
Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110) + Royals/Red Sox NRFI (-140) + HOU/MIA Under 8.5 Total (-120)
This trio focuses on the Boston-Kansas City pitching duel, with each leg supporting the others. Crochet’s dominance enables both the NRFI and game under, creating strong positive correlation.
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $560
All odds current as of publication and subject to change. Please verify current lines before placing wagers. Betting involves risk, and you should only wager what you can afford to lose.
