This comprehensive preview delivers the top MLB wagering angles for July 8, 2025, featuring best moneyline, run-line and total plays; team totals; no-run-first-inning bets; plus elite pitcher and player prop picks, home-run props and multi-leg parlays—all backed by data and expert analysis.
BEST MONEYLINE BETS
1. New York Yankees ML (-125) vs Seattle Mariners
2. Baltimore Orioles ML (+110) vs NY Mets
3. Miami Marlins ML (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds
BEST RUN LINE BETS
1. New York Mets -1.5 (+105) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Mets (52-39) send Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.99 ERA) against Baltimore’s Brandon Young (0-3, 7.02 ERA). With 82% of the public backing the Cardinals at similar odds, this represents strong value with the Mets’ superior pitching matchup.
2. Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+125) vs. Minnesota Twins
The Cubs rank #2 in runs per game (5.47) and face Simeon Woods Richardson (4-4, 4.41 ERA). Chicago’s offense has been explosive, scoring 11 runs in their last game.
3. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Run Line (-105) vs. Washington Nationals
The Cardinals present excellent value with Sonny Gray (2.52 ERA, 1.52 FIP over last eight outings) facing a Nationals team in organizational turmoil after firing GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez. Washington’s Jake Irvin has a 6.54 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 10 home runs in 31.2 innings.
BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 (-105)
This total moved from 8.0 to 8.5 with 72% of the public backing the Over. Clayton Kershaw has been vulnerable to Milwaukee (.248 average, 4 HRs, 5 RBIs career), while Jacob Misiorowski allowed 5 runs in 3⅔ innings last start.
2. Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 (-120)
With 84% of the public on the Over, this game features two potent offenses. The Mariners have a .769 road OPS and plate runs in the first inning 45.5% of the time on the road. Yankees lead MLB in OPS (.790).
3. Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics OVER 10.5 (-115)
This total moved up from 10.0 with 80% backing the Over. The Braves’ explosive offense faces a struggling Athletics pitching staff.
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
1. Chicago Cubs Team Total OVER 5.5 (-110)
The Cubs lead MLB in runs per game (5.47) and are at home facing Minnesota’s inconsistent pitching. They’ve scored 9.33 runs per game over their last three contests.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total OVER 4.5 (-120)
The Dodgers rank #1 in total runs scored (501) and face Jacob Misiorowski, who allowed 5 runs in his last outing. LA averages 5.45 runs per game.
3. Atlanta Braves Team Total OVER 5.5 (-125)
Atlanta’s powerful lineup faces Oakland’s struggling pitching staff in a pitcher-friendly park that could still see offensive fireworks.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
1. Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals NRFI (-120)
Kansas City ranks dead-last in OPS at home (.644), while Pittsburgh has a .582 road OPS – the lowest this century. Seth Lugo (2.65 ERA, .216 OBA) faces Mitch Keller (3.08 ERA, 2.92 FIP in last 10 starts).
2. Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros NRFI (-134)
Cleveland plates runs in the first inning at the lowest rate (21.35%) and faces MLB’s ERA leader Hunter Brown (1.82 ERA). Houston is missing key hitters Yordan Álvarez and Jeremy Peña.
3. Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins NRFI (-115)
Despite the high game total, both teams have solid starting pitching with Shota Imanaga (5-2, 2.78 ERA) for Chicago facing a Twins lineup that can be inconsistent early in games.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
1. Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals) OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
FTN’s MLB Model projects Gray for 6.25 strikeouts, providing an 11.29% edge. Gray has been dominant with a 2.52 ERA and 1.52 FIP over his last eight starts.
2. Hunter Brown (Houston Astros) OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Brown leads MLB with a 1.82 ERA and has been consistently striking out batters. Cleveland’s struggling offense (.658 OPS) makes this an attractive play.
3. Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners) OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Gilbert has developed into one of the league’s premier strikeout pitchers with strong velocity and command. He faces a Yankees lineup at home where he’s been more effective.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
1. Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Judge is batting .360 with 33 home runs and has been torrid in July (.450 average, 3 HRs). He’s 4-for-13 lifetime against Logan Gilbert with two doubles.
3. Shohei Ohtani (LA Dodgers) OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-135)
Ohtani ranks among the home run leaders with strong metrics against Milwaukee’s pitching staff. The Dodgers’ explosive offense should provide RBI opportunities.
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
1. James Wood (Washington Nationals) Home Run (+600)
Wood is slashing .288/.391/.549 with 23 homers and ranks in the 96th percentile in exit velocity (93.7 mph) and barrel rate (18.6%). He has a .964 OPS against righties, and the average line is only +480.
2. Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run (+450)
Caminero has 78.0 mph average bat speed (100th percentile) and 16 of his 21 homers against RHP. He faces Jack Flaherty, who has a 10.50 ERA in his last month with 5 HRs allowed in 4 starts.
3. Corey Seager (Texas Rangers) Home Run (+420)
Seager has five homers in his last 10 games and owns a .866 OPS vs. RHP. He’s 4-for-5 career with a homer against tonight’s starter José Soriano.
4. Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) Home Run (+220)
Judge leads with 33 homers and has been red-hot in July (.450 average, 3 HRs). He’s 4-for-13 lifetime against Logan Gilbert with two doubles.
5. Alec Burleson ( St. Louis Cardinals) Home Run (+450)
6. Eugenio Suarez (Arizona Diamondbacks) Home Run (+310)
2️⃣BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
Orioles ML + Cubs ML (+260)
- Baltimore Orioles ML (+110)
- Chicago Cubs ML (-140)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $260
This parlay combines the day’s strongest moneyline favorite with a Cubs team that’s been scoring at will (5.47 runs per game).
3️⃣BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OVER’s OF THE DAY
Power Offense Parlay (+583)
- Dodgers vs. Brewers OVER 8.5 (-105)
- Yankees vs. Mariners OVER 8.5 (-110)
- Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 (-120)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $583
This parlay targets the day’s best offensive environments with Judge’s consistent production.
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS PARLAY 🏆
4️⃣4-Leg Aggressive Home Run ROUND ROBIN Parlay: (+2,830)
- Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) Home Run (+220)
- Eugenio Suarez (Arizona Diamondbacks) Home Run (+310)
- Alec Burleson ( St. Louis Cardinals) Home Run (+450)
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run (+450)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $2,830
This parlay combines three hitters with excellent matchups. Suarez has 28 HRs with 20 against righties, while Burleson is 2-for-5 with a homer lifetime against Jake Irvin.
Home Runs Round Robin Scenario Payout Examples:
| Hit Outcomes | Winning Parlays | Approx Return |
|---|---|---|
| All 4 hit | All 11 parlays win | ~$2,940.65 |
| Any 3 hit | 3x 2-leg parlays, 1x 3-leg parlay | ~$544.10 |
| Any 2 hit | 1x 2-leg parlay | ~$82.70 |
| Only 1 or 0 hit | None | $0 |
Disclaimer: All betting odds and lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. These picks are for entertainment purposes and based on statistical analysis as of July 8, 2025.
