Baseball returns from the All-Star break with a full slate of 15 games on Friday, July 18, 2025, providing excellent betting opportunities across all markets. After analyzing expert picks, model projections, and statistical trends, we’ve compiled the most promising bets for tonight’s action.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Detroit Tigers ML (-105) vs. Texas Rangers ❌
The Detroit Tigers present exceptional value as slight road favorites against the Rangers. The Tigers have been dominant in the first half, sitting 21 games over .500 and firmly in control of the AL Central division race.
Starting Pitcher Advantage: Reese Olson takes the mound for Detroit, carrying a 2.95 ERA with impressive peripherals including a 3.83 xERA and 3.20 FIP. Since returning from the IL earlier this month, Olson has been exceptional, allowing only 3 earned runs across 9.1 innings in two starts.
Matchup Edge: Texas counters with Patrick Corbin, who carries a 4.15 ERA with concerning peripherals (4.61 xERA, 4.35 FIP). Detroit’s lineup ranks 4th in baseball with a .779 OPS against left-handed pitching, creating a significant advantage against Corbin.
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-125) vs. Baltimore Orioles ✅
The Rays offer solid value at home against Baltimore. CBS Sports’ projection model predicts a 5.0-4.3 final score in Tampa Bay’s favor, with the Rays winning in 62% of 10,000 computer simulations.
Home Field Advantage: Junior Caminero has been exceptional at Tropicana Field, hitting .316 with a .954 OPS at home this season compared to just .177 average and .607 OPS on the road.
Los Angeles Angels ML (+190) at Philadelphia Phillies ✅ ✅
Washington Nationals ML (+135) at San Diego Padres ❌
BEST RUN LINE BETS
Detroit Tigers -1.5 Run Line (+160) vs. Texas Rangers ❌
The Tigers offer strong value to win by multiple runs as road favorites. Detroit’s offensive prowess against left-handed pitching creates a significant edge, and Reese Olson’s recent form suggests he can limit Texas’ scoring.
Toronto Blue Jays -0.5 Run Line in First 5 Innings (+100) ✅ vs. San Francisco Giants
The Blue Jays present excellent value in the first five innings against San Francisco. Justin Verlander has struggled significantly this season with a 4.70 ERA and has been particularly poor with runners in scoring position, allowing a .329 average. His recent form is concerning with an 8.00 ERA over his last two starts.
Toronto’s Advantage: The Blue Jays offense has been productive with a .258 average and 8.72 hits per game. Chris Bassitt counters for Toronto with a 4.12 ERA and has been excellent recently with a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts.
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8.5 Runs (-115) ✅
Despite both teams ranking in the bottom three for runs per game, this total presents excellent value. Both starting pitchers are vulnerable: Jonathan Cannon carries a 4.44 ERA with a 5.51 ERA over his last four starts, while Bailey Falter has a 5.17 ERA over his last seven outings.
Bullpen Concerns: Chicago’s bullpen posts the third-highest SIERA in baseball, while Pittsburgh’s offense has surged to 3.80 runs per game over their last 10 games.
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians UNDER 8 Runs (-115)❌
This under play capitalizes on strong pitching performances and offensive struggles. Sears has shown excellent road form, and Cleveland’s lineup struggles against left-handed pitching. The total has solid value at -115 odds.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 Runs (-120) ❌
CBS Sports’ model projects this total to hit in 63.5% of simulations with a predicted final score of 5.2-4.9 in Arizona’s favor. Both offenses should produce against vulnerable pitching.
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 Runs (-110) ❌
Two elite left-handed starters create a strong under scenario. Nick Lodolo carries a 3.38 ERA with a 2.28 ERA over his last five starts, while Sean Manaea makes his season debut after a strong relief appearance.
Offensive Struggles: Both teams hit poorly against left-handed pitching, with the Reds at .224 average and Mets at .233 average versus southpaws. Both bullpens rank in the top 16 for lowest ERAs.
New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 Runs (-115) ✅
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
St. Louis Cardinals Team Total UNDER 4.5 Runs (-110) ✅
The Cardinals face Brandon Pfaadt, who has struggled significantly with a 5.16 ERA paired with a concerning 6.20 xERA. Pfaadt has allowed 24 home runs this season and struggles with command.
Cardinals’ Strength: St. Louis excels against four-seam fastballs, posting a .359 wOBA and .182 ISO against the pitch. The Cardinals average 4.6 runs per contest with a .715 OPS.
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total UNDER 4.5 Runs (-105) ❌
Arizona draws Andre Pallante, who has posted an ERA above 4.00 in every month this season. The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in MLB with a .772 OPS and excel against fastball pitching.
Matchup Advantage: The D-backs have exceptional numbers against four-seam fastballs with a .380 wOBA and .296 ISO, creating a significant edge against Pallante’s repertoire.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies – YRFI – YES RUN in 1st Inning (-110) ✅
Both offenses rank among the most productive in first innings. The Angels have the highest run first inning rate in baseball at 37.5%, while the Phillies plate a run in the opening frame in 39.1% of their home games at Citizens Bank Park.
Recent Form: The Angels rank 6th in MLB in OPS over the last month (.785), while Philadelphia is 5th in OPS at home (.783).
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – YRFI – YES RUN in 1st Inning (-115) ❌
The Diamondbacks boast a .772 OPS and a 32% first-inning run rate. Both starting pitchers have struggled: Andre Pallante has a 4.93 ERA in his last 15 starts, while Brandon Pfaadt ranks near the bottom in expected ERA (6.20), expected batting average (.306), and average exit velocity.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – YRFI – YES RUN in 1st Inning (-105) ❌
The Brewers lead MLB in batting average (.285) and are averaging 6.28 runs per game over the last 30 days. The Dodgers lead MLB with a .832 OPS at home and score in the first inning 40% of the time in Los Angeles.
Weather Factor: 10 mph winds blowing toward the outfield at Dodger Stadium favor hitters, while Quinn Priester has struggled in opening frames with a 4.38 ERA and .306 opponent batting average.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Tyler Glasnow (LA Dodgers) OVER 16.5 Outs (-105) ✅
The Dodgers ace returned to the rotation on July 9 and threw five innings of two-hit baseball against Milwaukee, throwing 85 pitches in his first start back from shoulder inflammation. THE BAT projects 17.13 outs for Glasnow, who should be able to pitch deeper in his second start with extra rest.
Matchup Repeat: Glasnow faces the same Milwaukee team he dominated in his return, but this time on his home mound at Dodger Stadium, providing additional advantage.
Slade Cecconi (Cleveland Guardians) OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (+135)❌
Cecconi has been consistent in issuing walks, recording 2+ walks in three straight games and in seven of his last 10 starts. He’s walked 18 batters over 55 innings pitched this season.
Opponent Factor: The Athletics rank 13th in walk rate over the last 30 days, showing improved plate discipline. THE BAT projects 86 pitches for Cecconi, though he’s thrown 98 and 105 pitches in his last two starts.
Mike Soroka (Washington Nationals) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)✅
Soroka has allowed five or fewer hits in six of his last seven starts and doesn’t typically pitch deep into games, averaging 90.2 pitches per start over his last 10 outings. THE BAT projects 88 pitches and 4.8 hits allowed against San Diego.
Game Script: Potential rain in Washington could lead to an early exit, and Soroka’s name in trade talks may limit his pitch count. A five-inning, four-hit game fits the projection perfectly.
Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds) OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) ✅
Lodolo draws excellent value at plus odds against the Mets. Five of the expected hitters have strikeout rates of at least 25% against left-handed pitching. Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his 19 starts this season.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110)✅
Schwarber faces a favorable matchup against Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins. The power hitter has shown consistent production and the +110 odds provide excellent value for his total bases prop.
Rafael Devers (San Francisco Giants) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)✅
Devers has been productive in the hybrid category and faces a favorable matchup. The combination stat allows multiple ways to cash with his power and run production capabilities.
Gleyber Torres (Detroit Tigers) 2+ Total Bases vs. Texas Rangers (+110) ❌
Torres has posted a .360 wOBA and .144 ISO through 84 games this season, with his power particularly effective against left-handed pitching (.411 wOBA, .243 ISO vs. lefties). He faces Patrick Corbin, who has regressed with a 4.73 ERA since the beginning of June.
Jackson Merrill (San Diego Padres) to Record an RBI (+135)❌
Merrill offers solid value for RBI production in a favorable matchup. The +135 odds provide excellent payout potential for a productive young hitter.
Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates) 2+ Total Bases (+110)✅
Cruz has been exceptional with his power metrics, leading MLB in exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel percentage, and bat speed. He has hit 15 of his 16 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
Matt Vierling (Detroit Tigers) OVER 1.5 Bases (+130)✅
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run (+425)✅✅✅✅
Caminero showcased his power in the 2025 Home Run Derby with 21 home runs in the first round, tied for the most in the field. He’s been dominant at home with a .316 average and .954 OPS at Tropicana Field, recording homers in two of his last five games before the break.
Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton has allowed opponents to hit .290 against him when pitching on the road, creating a favorable environment for Caminero’s power.
Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates) Home Run (+425) ❌
Cruz was tied with Caminero with 21 home runs in the Derby’s opening round and hit a viral 513-foot home run. He leads MLB in exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel percentage, and bat speed. Crucially, he has hit 15 of his 16 home runs against right-handed pitchers and faces Jonathan Cannon, against whom left-handed batters have an .844 OPS CBS Sports3.
Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles) Home Run (+450) ❌
Despite having just 11 home runs in 88 games after hitting 37 homers last year, Henderson has shown recent form with three extra-base hits in his last four games before the break. He’s hitting .311 with a .909 OPS against right-handed pitching and has hit nine home runs in 33 career games against the Rays.
Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+245) ❌
The Home Run Derby champion has been exceptional against left-handed pitching this season, with 16 home runs in 104 at-bats against southpaws. He faces Brandon Walter, who has allowed a massive 1.87 HR/9 this season and is due for negative regression.
Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels) Home Run (+360) ❌
Trout has 17 home runs in 70 games this season and faces Jesus Luzardo, who has historically been a plus matchup for right-handed power. The weather conditions in Philadelphia should be favorable for hitting with temperatures in the low-80s and decent humidity.
Aaron Judge (NY Yankees) Home Run (+260) ❌
Despite facing Spencer Strider, the +260 odds are too high for a hitter with Judge’s power. Strider has been a slightly below-average matchup for right-handed power, and Judge’s true odds should be closer to +240 in this spot.
🏆ROUND ROBIN HOME RUN PARLAY🏆
4️⃣ 4-3-2 ROUND ROBIN HOME RUN PROPS PARLAY (+9,538)
- Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+245) ❌- Home Run Derby champion with dominant splits vs. lefties
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run ✅(+425)
- Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels) Home Run ❌(+360)
- Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates) Home Run ❌(+425)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $9,538
2️⃣ BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+288)
Tigers Moneyline + Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 Runs
Leg 1: Detroit Tigers (-105)❌ – Strong pitching advantage with Reese Olson and favorable offensive matchup against Patrick Corbin
Leg 2: Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 Runs (-101) ❌- Both offenses should produce against vulnerable pitching, with the model projecting 63.5% hit rate
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $288 ❌
This conservative two-leg parlay combines a strong moneyline favorite with a total that has solid analytical support.
