The Dallas Mavericks (39-43) face the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) in a crucial Western Conference Play-In Tournament game on April 18, 2025, at FedExForum in Memphis, with tip-off at 9:30 p.m. ET. The winner secures the No. 8 seed and a first-round playoff matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Grizzlies, favored by 6.5 points, dominated the regular-season series 3-1, including a 132-97 rout in the finale. However, Dallas is riding momentum from a 120-106 road win over the Sacramento Kings, led by Anthony Davis’ 27 points and nine rebounds. Memphis, coming off a 121-116 loss to the Golden State Warriors, relies on Ja Morant (questionable, ankle) and Desmond Bane, but their depth is tested.
The Mavericks’ frontcourt, with Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford, poses a challenge to Memphis’ paint defense, ranked 20th (48.8 PPG allowed). Expect a high-scoring, close game, with Dallas’ defensive edge (8 blocks vs. Kings) potentially keeping it within the spread.
Sharpest and High-Value Bets & Proposition Bets
Best Bets
- BEST BET: Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110)
Dallas has covered in 6 of 10 games with Anthony Davis in the lineup, including a 14-point win over Sacramento. Memphis’ 17th-ranked net rating post-All-Star break and Ja Morant’s questionable status (ankle) suggest the Mavericks can keep this game within two buckets. The model leans toward Dallas covering in over 50% of simulations. - BEST BET: Over 221 (-110)
The model projects 229 combined points, with both teams averaging 235.9 PPG combined this season, 14.9 above the total. Dallas’ games have gone OVER in 9 of 11 road games, and Memphis’ offense thrives at home (26-15).
Proposition Bets
- Anthony Davis (Dallas Mavericks) Over 26.5 Points (+104)
Davis scored 27 points in 30 minutes against Sacramento and has cleared 23 points in 4 of his last 5 games. Facing a Memphis defense allowing 5.5 blocks per game (25th), Davis should exploit Zach Edey’s lack of quickness, likely exceeding 27.5 points in a high-usage role. - Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)
Bane hit 5 threes in the loss to Golden State and has cleared 2.5 in 6 of his last 7 games, shooting 42.1% from deep since March. Dallas ranks 19th in opponent 3-point percentage, making Bane a strong bet to hit at least 3 triples, especially if Morant is limited. - P.J. Washington (Dallas Mavericks) Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125)
Washington grabbed 9 rebounds vs. Sacramento and has hit 7+ in 7 of his last 15 games, including 8 and 10 against Memphis this season. With Lively and Gafford’s minutes potentially limited, Washington’s rebounding role grows against a Grizzlies team allowing 43.5 rebounds per game. - Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 24.5 Points (-110)
Despite his ankle injury, Morant is expected to play with the season on the line. He averaged 31 points against Dallas this season and scored 22 in limited minutes vs. Golden State. Against Dallas’ 20th-ranked defense (115.4 PPG allowed), Morant should push past 26.5 points if active.
Notes
- Injury Watch: Monitor Ja Morant’s status (questionable, ankle). If he’s out, lean heavier on Bane’s props and consider Grizzlies’ moneyline less reliable.
- Trends: Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against Memphis, but Memphis is 17-8 ATS when favored by 6+ points. The OVER has hit in 11 of Dallas’ last 13 road games.
- Model Insights: SportsLine’s model (156-115 on top-rated picks) leans OVER and favors Dallas covering. NBC Sports Bet also recommends Mavericks +6.5.
