The Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) face the Golden State Warriors (48-34) in a high-stakes Western Conference Play-In Tournament clash at Chase Center, San Francisco, at 10:00 PM ET. The Warriors hold a 3-1 edge in their season series, including a 134-125 victory on April 1.
Golden State’s potent offense, led by Stephen Curry and bolstered by Jimmy Butler’s addition, meets a Grizzlies squad struggling defensively since firing coach Taylor Jenkins. Memphis relies on Ja Morant’s explosiveness and Zach Edey’s rebounding dominance, but fatigue from Golden State’s recent overtime loss to the Clippers could play a factor. The Warriors are favored, with a spread of -7 and an over/under of 228.5 points, per DraftKings. Expect a competitive game with playoff seeding on the line.
Sharpest and High-Value Bets
- BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies +7 (-110): Despite Golden State’s edge, Memphis has covered in similar spots as underdogs, and their rest advantage (starters sat Sunday) could keep this game close early, especially in the first quarter.
- BEST BET: Over 228 (-110): The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Grizzlies-Warriors matchups, with both teams combining for 235.5 points per game on average. Golden State’s offense (117.3 PPG since February) pushes this past the line. However, SportsLine’s model projects 220 points, suggesting a tighter, playoff-style game if Memphis’s defense steps up.
Proposition Bets:
- Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) UNDER 28.5 Points (-115): Curry averages 24.5 PPG but exploded for 52 against Memphis earlier this season. With playoff intensity, he’s likely to clear this mark. We betting not against Steph Curry, but against inflated line.
- Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies) Under 26.5 Points (-125): Morant averages 23.2 PPG, and Golden State’s defense, ranked second in points allowed to point guards (22.81), could limit him to his season norm.
- Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120): Edey’s averaged 15.7 rebounds in April, grabbing 16 against Golden State on April 1. His increased minutes (30.5 per game) make this a strong play.
- Jimmy Butler (Golden State Warriors) Over 6.5 Assists (-120): Butler’s dished 7+ assists in his last three games, thriving as a facilitator alongside Curry. Memphis’s 22nd-ranked rebounding defense gives him chances to create.
- Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125):
Bane averages 2.6 threes per game and faces a Warriors defense allowing 23.19 PPG to shooting guards. His volume (34.6 minutes per game) supports this prop.
Betting Trends to Watch:
- Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, but 12-4 straight-up against Western Conference foes.
- Memphis is 3-4 ATS as a 7+ point underdog but 10-1 ATS at home against Golden State historically.
- The OVER has hit in 58 of Memphis’s 82 games when the total exceeds 229 points.
Final Prediction: Golden State Warriors 117, Memphis Grizzlies 111. The Warriors’ depth and home court prevail, but Memphis keeps it within single digits, making the +7 spread the sharpest play.
