The most probable outcomes for the first five innings, the full game, and the best bets and prop bets for the Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB game on March 27, 2025
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
Let’s break down the most probable outcomes for for the Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB game on March 27, 2025, featuring Justin Steele and Zac Gallen as starting pitchers. This analysis is based on historical performance, recent trends, and matchup specifics available up to the current date.
BEST BETS:
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+175)
Arizona’s offensive firepower and Gallen’s edge over Steele’s recent form make them likely to win by at least two runs. The +155 odds offer value given their home dominance and the Cubs’ early struggles.
Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Both starters have the potential to suppress runs early, and while Arizona’s offense is strong, the Cubs’ bats may take time to wake up. The total hit the under in 87 of Chicago’s 162 games in 2024, supporting this lean.
Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-130)
Gallen’s home splits and Steele’s matchup history suggest Arizona takes an early lead, making this a safer play than the full game if bullpens falter.
Diamondbacks First 3 Innings Moneyline (-125)
Best Prop Bets:
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Gallen struck out 5+ batters in 17 of 28 starts in 2024, including his last seven. The Cubs struck out 8.4 times per game last year, and Gallen’s 38 Ks in 34.2 innings against them make this a strong play.
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)
Marte’s .342/.401/.679 line against lefties in 2024, including 18 homers in 193 at-bats, pairs perfectly with Steele’s vulnerability to power (2 HRs allowed in Tokyo). He’s a prime candidate to produce.
Justin Steele Under 3.5 Innings Pitched (+132)
After throwing just 4 innings in Tokyo and facing a potent Arizona lineup that hit .284 against lefties, Steele may exit early, especially with the Cubs managing his workload post-travel.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
MLB Opening Day matchup between the Athletics (formerly Oakland Athletics, now playing in Sacramento) and the Seattle Mariners on March 27, 2025, at T-Mobile Park. Luis Severino will start for the Athletics, while Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the Mariners. Below, I’ll provide the most probable outcomes for the first five innings and the full game, along with the best bets and prop bets based on available data, pitcher performance, team stats, and ballpark factors.
BEST BETS:
Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Gilbert’s home dominance (2.49 ERA) and success against the Athletics make an early lead likely. Severino’s road struggles against lefties could lead to an early deficit. At -120, this offers value for a pitcher-driven edge.
Under 7 Runs (-110)
T-Mobile Park suppresses scoring, and both pitchers are capable of limiting damage. The Mariners’ offense struggles to produce, and the Athletics may take time to gel, pointing to a low-scoring game.
Best Prop Bets:
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Gilbert averaged 9.5 K/9 in 2024 and struck out 21 Athletics in 18.2 innings last season. The Athletics’ high strikeout rate (1,502 in 2024) and Gilbert’s home prowess make this a strong play at plus odds.
Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Severino’s 7.9 K/9 last year and reduced swing-and-miss stuff (21.2% K rate) suggest he’ll rely more on contact. The Mariners struck out a lot but may not chase enough to push him over this total.
Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
Rodríguez is Seattle’s best hitter and faces a Severino who allowed 1.1 HR/9 in 2024. As a right-handed batter, he avoids Severino’s weaker splits, and his Opening Day spotlight could yield a big performance.
