Get ready for an explosive night of mixed martial arts as UFC 316 descends upon the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. With both bantamweight titles on the line and a stacked card featuring rising stars and veteran warriors, this event promises to deliver fireworks from the first bell to the last. Our comprehensive breakdown covers every fight with expert analysis, must-bet picks, and bold predictions that could make or break your betting night.
Where Champions Rise and Fall: The Ultimate Fight Night Preview
MAIN EVENT: Bantamweight Title Rematch
🥊Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O’Malley
Odds: Dvalishvili -280, O’Malley +225
The Georgian machine looks to prove his dominance wasn’t a fluke as he defends against the charismatic former champion. Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling and cardio overwhelmed O’Malley in their first encounter, controlling the fight with his signature pressure style. O’Malley enters seeking redemption, hoping his improved takedown defense and knockout power can turn the tables.
BEST BET: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-160)
Prop Bet: UNDER 4.5 Rounds (+200)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Dvalishvili repeats his dominant performance, using superior cardio and wrestling to grind out another decision victory. His relentless pace and improved striking make him too much for O’Malley to handle over five rounds.
CO-MAIN EVENT: Women’s Bantamweight Title
🥊Julianna Peña (c) vs. Kayla Harrison
Odds: Harrison -750, Peña +525
The two-time Olympic judo champion Harrison enters as a massive favorite, bringing her world-class grappling credentials against the scrappy veteran champion. Peña’s submission skills and heart have served her well, but Harrison’s size, strength, and technical superiority present a formidable challenge.
BEST BET: Harrison by submission (+188)✅
Prop Bet: Fight to end in Round 1 or 2 (+125)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Harrison’s Olympic-level grappling proves too much as she dominates on the ground, likely securing a submission victory in the early rounds to capture her first UFC title.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
🥊Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer – Middleweight
Odds: Pyfer -400, Gastelum +310
The veteran Gastelum faces rising prospect Pyfer in a crucial middleweight clash. Pyfer’s power and aggression have impressed in his UFC run, while Gastelum brings championship experience and proven durability.
BEST BET: Pyfer by TKO/KO (+150) ❌
Prop Bet: Fight goes under 2.5 rounds (+105) ❌
Most Probable Outcome: Pyfer’s youth and power advantage prove decisive as he overwhelms the aging Gastelum with aggressive striking, likely earning a knockout victory.
🥊Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix – Bantamweight
Odds: Mix -180, Bautista +150
Two elite bantamweights collide in what could be a title eliminator. Mix brings his well-rounded skill set and finishing ability, while Bautista rides an impressive win streak with his technical striking.
BEST BET: Mix by submission (+300)❌
Prop Bet: UNDER 2.5 rounds (+145)❌
Most Probable Outcome: Mix’s grappling advantage and finishing instincts give him the edge in a competitive fight that likely goes to the scorecards, with Mix taking a hard-fought decision.
🥊Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque – Welterweight
Odds: Holland -218, Luque +180
Two of the division’s most entertaining strikers promise fireworks in this welterweight showcase. Holland’s length and power meet Luque’s technical precision and finishing ability in what should be an action-packed affair.
BEST BET: Holland by TKO/KO (+120)❌
Prop Bet: UNDER 1.5 Rounds (+170) ✅Line was pushed down, but there is still value at this price
Most Probable Outcome: Holland’s reach advantage and knockout power prove decisive as he catches Luque with a big shot, likely earning a highlight-reel finish.
PRELIM CARD ANALYSIS
🥊Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van – Flyweight
Odds: Van -700, Silva +500
Van enters as a heavy favorite against the struggling Silva, who has lost two straight. Van’s technical striking and improved grappling make him a tough matchup for the Brazilian.
BEST BET: Van by decision (+150) ❌
Prop Bet: Fight goes OVER 2.5 rounds (-130)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Van’s superior technique and conditioning lead to a dominant decision victory as he outclasses Silva across three rounds.
🥊Brendson Ribeiro vs. Azamat Murzakanov – Light Heavyweight
Odds: Murzakanov -600, Ribeiro +440
The undefeated Murzakanov brings his explosive striking against the experienced Ribeiro. Murzakanov’s speed and power have been impressive, while Ribeiro offers veteran savvy.
BEST BET: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+200)✅✅
Prop Bet: Fight ends under 1.5 rounds (-145)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Murzakanov’s explosive power ends the fight early, likely securing a first-round knockout to maintain his perfect record.
🥊Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Heavyweight
Odds: Spivac -150, Cortes-Acosta +125
Two heavyweight contenders battle in a crucial division matchup. Spivac’s submission skills and improved striking face Cortes-Acosta’s power and athleticism.
BEST BET: Spivac by submission (+300)❌
Most Probable Outcome: Spivac’s grappling advantage proves decisive as he works his way to a submission victory, likely in the later rounds after wearing down his opponent.
🥊Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson – Welterweight
Odds: Williams -190, Gustafsson +160
Williams brings his devastating knockout power against the technical Gustaffson in an intriguing welterweight clash. Both fighters possess finishing ability but with different approaches.
BEST BET: Williams by KO/TKO (+125)❌
Prop Bet: Fight ends in Round 1 (+180)❌
Most Probable Outcome: Williams’ explosive power proves too much as he catches Gustafsson early, earning a spectacular knockout victory.
🥊Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong – Women’s Flyweight
Odds: Wang Cong -550, da Silva +400
The Chinese striker Wang Cong enters as a heavy favorite against the veteran da Silva. Cong’s technical striking and size advantage make her a tough matchup.
BEST BET: Wang Cong by decision (-120)✅
Prop Bet: Fight goes the distance (+100)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Wang Cong’s superior technique and reach control the fight, leading to a comfortable decision victory over three rounds.
🥊Jeka Saragih vs. JooSang Yoo – Featherweight
Odds: Yoo -600, Saragih +425
Yoo brings his well-rounded skill set against the Indonesian striker Saragih. Yoo’s grappling advantage and improved striking make him a significant favorite.
BEST BET: Yoo by submission (+190)❌
Prop Bet: Fight ends in Round 2 (+250)❌
Most Probable Outcome: Yoo’s superior grappling leads to a submission victory as he takes the fight to the ground and finds a finish.
🥊Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz – Lightweight
Odds: Salkilld -485, Ashmouz +365
The Australian Salkilld looks to build on his spectacular UFC debut against the determined Ashmouz. Salkilld’s momentum and finishing ability make him a heavy favorite.
BEST BET: Salkilld by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+180)❌
Prop Bet: Fight ends under 1.5 rounds (+120)❌
Most Probable Outcome: Salkilld’s momentum continues as his power striking leads to another quick knockout victory, likely in the first round.
🥊 Mark Choinski vs. Marquel Mederos
Odds: Mederos -200, Choinski +165
The card opener features two hungry fighters looking to make a statement. Mederos’ experience and finishing ability give him the edge in this competitive matchup.
BEST BET: Mederos by TKO/KO (+150)❌
Prop Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+124)✅
Most Probable Outcome: Mederos’ superior technique and conditioning lead to a late stoppage victory as he breaks down Choinski in the later rounds.
FINAL VERDICT
UFC 316 promises to deliver championship drama and spectacular finishes from top to bottom. The main event rematch should favor the champion Dvalishvili, while Harrison looks poised to capture her first UFC title in dominant fashion. The prelims are loaded with finishing potential, particularly the explosive matchups featuring Murzakanov and Williams.
Best Parlay of the Night:
Dvalishvili decision +
Harrison submission + ✅
Murzakanov KO/TKO + ✅
Holland TKO/KO (+850)❌
Don’t miss what could be one of the most exciting fight nights of 2025, as Newark becomes the epicenter of mixed martial arts excellence.
OUR LAST WEEK IN UFC
It wasn’t the best outcome for us financially. We went 5-8 with a 1.8-unit loss on UFC fights last Saturday, with a key battle canceled at the last minute. It was our debut in handicapping UFC fights, and we can only get better from here.
