The UFC returns to Las Vegas this Saturday with a women’s flyweight showdown headlining the card, along with several intriguing matchups that offer lucrative betting opportunities. Our comprehensive breakdown analyzes each fight to help you find the best value plays at UFC Vegas 107.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber
This catchweight main event (originally scheduled as a flyweight bout) features two of the division’s top contenders looking to make their case for a title shot. Blanchfield (-238) comes in as the favorite against Barber (+195) in what should be a tactical affair.
Blanchfield’s grappling prowess will be the difference-maker here. She’s a technical marvel on the ground with slick submissions and dominant control. While Barber has shown improved striking and decent takedown defense, her 56.95% striking accuracy won’t be enough to keep this fight standing.
BEST BET: Blanchfield by Decision (-125)
Blanchfield’s path to victory will likely involve controlling Barber on the ground but may struggle to find a finish against a durable opponent. Expect a competitive five-round affair with Blanchfield’s superior grappling securing a clear decision victory.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein
The co-main event features ranked lightweight Gamrot (-175) against rising prospect Klein (+140) in what could be the most competitive fight on the card.
Klein’s excellent takedown defense (reportedly among the best in the division) will be crucial against Gamrot’s wrestling-heavy approach. However, Gamrot’s relentless pace and experience against higher-level competition give him a slight edge.
BEST BET: Gamrot by Decision (-110)
Gamrot will need to weather Klein’s dangerous striking in the early rounds, but his cardio and wrestling should allow him to take over in the later stages. Expect a closely contested decision that could go either way, but Gamrot’s wrestling will be the difference.
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Goff (-340) enters as a significant favorite against veteran Brahimaj (+260) in this welterweight clash. The odds reflect Goff’s physical advantages and momentum coming into this fight.
Goff’s bruising style and relentless pressure will be the key factor. He lands an impressive 8.56 significant strikes per minute and should overwhelm Brahimaj, who has shown vulnerability to pressure fighters in the past.
BEST BET: Goff by KO/TKO (+110)
Goff’s aggressive style and Brahimaj’s willingness to engage should lead to an action-packed affair that doesn’t see the final bell. Look for Goff to find a finish in the second round as he wears down Brahimaj with his pressure and power.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes
Light heavyweight striker Jacoby (-190) takes on the dangerous but less experienced Lopes (+177) in what should be an entertaining stand-up battle.
Jacoby’s technical striking and experience advantage will be crucial against the powerful but somewhat raw Lopes. While Lopes has knockout power, Jacoby’s superior footwork and range management should allow him to control the fight.
BEST BET: Jacoby by Decision (+200)
Prop Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
Jacoby will likely utilize his reach and technical advantages to pick apart Lopes from the outside. While both men have finishing power, expect a more measured approach from Jacoby as he looks to avoid the dangerous early storm from Lopes.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson
After weight-cutting issues, this fight moves to featherweight with Chiasson (-130) slightly favored over Vieira (+110). The matchup presents an interesting stylistic clash between Vieira’s grappling and Chiasson’s striking.
Chiasson’s higher work rate and pressure fighting should give her the edge against Vieira, who tends to be more methodical in her approach. Vieira’s takedowns could be a factor, but Chiasson’s improved takedown defense may neutralize this threat.
BEST BET: Chiasson by Decision (+120)
Chiasson’s volume striking and pressure should allow her to outwork Vieira over three rounds. While Vieira has the stronger single shots, Chiasson’s higher output will likely sway the judges in a competitive but clear decision.
Zachary Reese vs. Duško Todorović
Power puncher Reese (-150) takes on the technically sound but defensively vulnerable Todorović (+130) in an intriguing middleweight clash.
Todorović has shown defensive liabilities throughout his UFC tenure, having been knocked out multiple times. Reese’s power punching and faster cage movement give him a clear advantage in what should be a striking battle.
BEST BET: Reese by KO/TKO (+105)
Todorović’s defensive vulnerabilities and Reese’s power make this a prime candidate for a finish. With 7 of Reese’s 10 career fights ending via KO/TKO, expect him to find Todorović’s chin early in this contest.
Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento
In this flyweight battle, the tactical Nascimento (+125) faces the aggressive Filho (-145) in what could be a grappling-heavy affair.
Both fighters excel on the ground, but Nascimento’s elite grappling pedigree and fight IQ give him a slight edge. Filho is the more aggressive fighter, but Nascimento’s technical ability and experience could be the difference.
BEST BET: Nascimento by Decision (+150)
Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-140)
This should be a technical, back-and-forth grappling match that goes the distance. Nascimento’s control and positional awareness will likely be the deciding factor in a closely contested decision.
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt
Submission specialist Leavitt (-205) faces the veteran Holobaugh (+170) in what should be an entertaining lightweight contest.
Leavitt’s submission prowess gives him a significant advantage, especially considering that seven of his eleven wins have come via submission. Holobaugh has shown vulnerability on the ground in the past, which plays directly into Leavitt’s strengths.
BEST BET: Leavitt by Submission (+280)
Prop Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Leavitt should be able to get this fight to the ground where his submission skills will give him a clear advantage. Look for him to find a submission finish in the second round.
Bolaji Oki vs. Michael Aswell
The powerful Oki (-470) enters as a heavy favorite against short-notice replacement Aswell (+360).
Oki’s striking power and reach advantage should prove decisive against Aswell, who typically competes at featherweight. While Aswell has shown grit and determination, the physical disadvantages will likely be too much to overcome.
BEST BET: Oki by KO/TKO (-120)
Prop Bet: Fight Does Not Go the Distance (-125)
Oki’s clean striking and significant power advantage should lead to an early finish. Expect him to connect with something significant in the first round that ends Aswell’s night.
Rayanne Dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean
In the night’s opening bout, Dos Santos (-265) faces Ardelean (+215) in a strawweight contest between two fighters looking for their first UFC win.
Dos Santos has the technical edge with cleaner striking and better overall skills. While Ardelean is tough and durable, her defensive liabilities give Dos Santos a clear path to victory through consistent output and technical striking.
BEST BET: Dos Santos by Decision (-135)
This fight should go the distance with Dos Santos utilizing her superior technique to outpoint Ardelean over three rounds. Neither fighter has shown consistent finishing ability, making the decision the most likely outcome.
This UFC Vegas 107 card offers several intriguing betting opportunities across all fights. The main event between Blanchfield and Barber should deliver a technical showcase, while several undercard fights provide value for those looking for finishing props. Make sure to shop around for the best odds before placing your bets on what promises to be an exciting night of fights.
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