Based on the current standings after the 3rd round of the AT&T Pro-Am, here are the strongest candidates to win, along with estimated percentage chances of victory:
Top Contenders & Win Probabilities
- Sepp Straka (-16) — 28% chance to win +280
- Leads by one stroke, in great form with two 65s in the first two rounds.
- Strong closing ability but will need to hold off elite chasers.
- Rory McIlroy (-15) — 22% chance to win+220
- Tied for second, has experience winning big events.
- Shot a 65 in Round 3, indicating he’s peaking at the right time.
- Shane Lowry (-15) — 18% chance to win +450
- Tied with McIlroy at -15, also shot a strong 65 in Round 3.
- Has the temperament and skill to go low on Sunday.
- Justin Rose (-14) — 12% chance to win +1000
- One of three players at -14, a past champion with solid experience in closing rounds.
- Recent form suggests he can make a run if Straka/McIlroy stumble.
- Tom Kim (-14) — 10% chance to win +700
- Young and fearless, has already won on Tour and showed he can handle pressure.
- His 65 in Round 2 proves he can go low.
- Cam Davis (-14) — 7% chance to win +1200
- Has the skills to win but needs an outstanding final round to make up ground.
Long Shots
- Lucas Glover (-13) — 4% chance to win +3000 (Could contend but needs a low round and help from leaders.)
- Russell Henley (-12) — 3% chance to win +3500 (Likely too far back but can finish in the top 5.)
The tournament is shaping up to be a tight battle, with Straka trying to hold off two major champions in McIlroy and Lowry. If you’re looking for a smart bet, McIlroy at -15 has great value given his experience and form.
Would you like insights on betting angles or final-round scenarios?
2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prize money
Total Purse: $20 million
| Position | Amount (USD) |
|---|---|
| 1st | $3,600,000 |
| 2nd | $2,160,000 |
| 3rd | $1,360,000 |
| 4th | $960,000 |
| 5th | $795,000 |
| 6th | $715,000 |
| 7th | $665,000 |
| 8th | $615,000 |
| 9th | $575,000 |
| 10th | $535,000 |
| 11th | $495,000 |
| 12th | $455,000 |
| 13th | $415,000 |
| 14th | $375,000 |
| 15th | $352,000 |
| 16th | $332,000 |
| 17th | $312,000 |
| 18th | $292,000 |
| 19th | $272,000 |
| 20th | $252,000 |
| 21st | $232,000 |
| 22nd | $217,000 |
| 23rd | $202,000 |
| 24th | $187,000 |
| 25th | $172,000 |
| 26th | $158,000 |
| 27th | $150,000 |
| 28th | $143,000 |
| 29th | $137,000 |
| 30th | $131,000 |
| 31st | $125,000 |
| 32nd | $119,000 |
| 33rd | $114,000 |
| 34th | $109,000 |
| 35th | $104,000 |
| 36th | $99,000 |
| 37th | $94,000 |
| 38th | $89,000 |
| 39th | $84,000 |
| 40th | $80,000 |
| 41st | $76,000 |
| 42nd | $72,000 |
| 43rd | $68,000 |
| 44th | $64,000 |
| 45th | $60,000 |
| 46th | $57,000 |
| 47th | $54,000 |
| 48th | $52,000 |
| 49th | $50,000 |
| 50th | $48,000 |
| 51st | $47,000 |
| 52nd | $46,000 |
| 53rd | $45,000 |
| 54th | $44,000 |
| 55th | $43,000 |
| 56th | $42,000 |
| 57th | $41,000 |
| 58th | $40,000 |
| 59th | $39,500 |
| 60th | $39,000 |
| 61st | $38,500 |
| 62nd | $38,000 |
| 63rd | $37,500 |
| 64th | $37,000 |
| 65th | $36,500 |
| 66th | $36,000 |
| 67th | $35,500 |
| 68th | $35,000 |
| 69th | $34,750 |
| 70th | $34,500 |
| 71st | $34,250 |
| 72nd | $34,000 |
| 73rd | $33,750 |
| 74th | $33,500 |
| 75th | $33,250 |
| 76th | $33,000 |
| 77th | $32,750 |
| 78th | $32,500 |
| 79th | $32,250 |
| 80th | $32,000 |
