We are backing three massive underdogs, hat could turn lunch money into rent money – featuring the Rays (+120), Reds (+145), and Marlins (+125) all pulling off road upsets. Meanwhile, red-hot NRFI system (23-10 in their last 33 picks!) has locked onto the Cubs-Brewers game where Milwaukee’s incredible 16-game first-inning scoreless streak meets Chicago’s road warrior Shota Imanaga.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+122) vs. New York Yankees
Models has identified strong value on the Rays as +120 underdogs. Tampa Bay took two of three games from New York in May and opened this series with a 4-2 victory on Monday. Junior Caminero’s 27 home runs this season provide offensive firepower, while veteran Zack Littell (8-8, 3.72 ERA) faces struggling Yankees rookie Will Warren (6-5, 4.82 ERA). The model projects Tampa Bay winning in almost 50% of simulations despite the sizable underdog status.
Cincinnati Reds (+148) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati enters on a four-game winning streak before dropping the first two games of this series. The Reds held a 4-2 lead into the seventh inning Tuesday before falling 5-4. With Shohei Ohtani not expected to pitch more than four innings, the model sees value in Cincinnati winning 50% of simulations at +145 odds.
Miami Marlins (+132) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Miami pulled off a 5-0 upset as +130 underdogs Tuesday, holding St. Louis to just four hits. The Marlins are 15-5 in their last 20 road games and face Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who has allowed 5+ earned runs in three of his past five starts. The model projects Miami winning in 46% of simulations.
Boston Red Sox ML (+107) at Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels ML (+111) vs Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves ML (+111) at Kansas City Royals
BEST RUN LINE BETS
Seattle Mariners -1.5 Run Line (+110)
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Over 9.0 Runs (-105)
FanDuel Research Pick Both starting pitchers have been shaky recently. Zack Littell has the 19th-worst SIERA (4.27) and worst HR/9 rate (1.82) among qualified pitchers. Will Warren ranks in the 16th percentile in walk rate (10.8%) and 20th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.6%). The Yankees bullpen has posted the third-worst SIERA (4.48) over the last 30 days.
Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians Over 8 Runs (-105)
Colorado has shown offensive life since the All-Star break with the eighth-best wOBA (.341). Cleveland is expected to use an opener in Kolby Allard, setting up the Rockies against a bullpen with the 11th-worst SIERA (3.96) over the last 30 days.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 (+100)
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 4.5 Runs (+120)
Baltimore Orioles OVER 4.5 Runs (-125)
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-150)
The Brewers have failed to score in the first inning in 16 straight games and haven’t scored in the first inning in 89% of their home games this season. Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga hasn’t allowed a first inning run in 10 of 14 starts with a 2.68 road ERA. Freddy Peralta hasn’t allowed a first inning run in 19 of 22 starts including six straight.
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels NRFI (-130)
WagerTalk Selection Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t allowed a first inning run in 14 of 17 starts this season and has been dominant with just one earned run allowed in his last 23.2 innings. Jose Soriano hasn’t allowed a first inning run in 17 of 22 starts this season.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Eovaldi ranks in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate (27.4%) and faces an Angels lineup with the second-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) versus right-handed pitching.
Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Logan Webb (SF Giants) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Anthony Volpe (NY Yankees) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115)
Nick Castellanos (Philadelphia Phillies) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-150)
Adley Rutschman (Baltimore Orioles) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130)
Ryan O’Hearn (Baltimore Orioles) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135)✅
Freddie Freeman (LA Dodgers) OVER 0.5 RBI (+140)
The Dodgers first baseman has been consistent in RBI opportunities and faces a Cincinnati pitching staff that has allowed runs in key situations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)✅
Guerrero has been hot lately and gets a good matchup against Baltimore’s pitching.
Cedric Mullins (Baltimore Orioles) OVER 0.5 RBI (+165)
Starling Marte (NY Mets) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+110)
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run (+310)
Strong value at +400 compared to his average line of +315. Despite hitting .173 on the road, Caminero has 10 home runs in 45 road games including one in Game 1 of this series. He faces struggling Yankees right-hander Will Warren who has allowed 6 home runs over his last 5 starts. Caminero has an .850 OPS and 21 of 27 home runs against righties.
Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves) Home Run (+500)
The weather in Kansas City is hot and humid with wind blowing out (home run index 10/10). The Royals are using a bullpen game, and Murphy has 16 HRs in 71 games this season. The model projects +350 fair value, making +510 excellent value.
Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+360)
Rodriguez has surged in the second half with 7 home runs in July after just 1 in June. He’s 3-for-9 lifetime against Jeffrey Springs with one home run, and Springs has allowed 17 of 20 home runs to right-handed batters.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) Home Run (+310)
Adley Rutschman (Baltimore Orioles) Home Run (+475)
Francisco Lindor (NY Mets) Home Run (+425)
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS ROUND ROBIN PARLAY 🏆
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) Home Run (+310)
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+360)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) Home Run (+310)
- Francisco Lindor (NY Mets) Home Run (+425)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $8,913 ⭐
2️⃣ BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+333)
Rays ML + Over 9.0 Runs (+333)
Combining the best moneyline value with the strongest total play. Both picks target the same game where two struggling pitchers create opportunities for both the underdog and high-scoring affair.
3️⃣ BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+615)
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 (-120)
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Over 9.0 Runs (-105)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 (+100)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $615 ⭐
These picks are based on expert analysis and statistical modeling, but no bet is guaranteed. Always wager within your means and consider the inherent variance in baseball betting.
