The post-trade deadline slate features 15 games with plenty of betting value as teams adjust to their new rosters and make their playoff push. Here are the most intelligent and promising bets for Friday’s action.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Boston Red Sox ML (+110)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+100)
BEST RUN LINE BETS
New York Yankees -1.5 (+105) vs. Miami Marlins
Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees should handle Miami comfortably. Carlos Rodon faces rookie Janson Junk, who has limited MLB experience. The Marlins’ below-average bullpen provides additional value.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+115) vs. Texas Rangers
Logan Gilbert has dominated the Rangers historically, and T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly environment favors the home team. Gilbert’s elite strikeout numbers (Top 5% in sport) should neutralize Texas’s swing-heavy lineup.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+120) vs St. Louis Cardinals
BEST 1st 5 INNINGS BETS
Detroit Tigers F5 +0.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Jack Flaherty has been prone to early trouble, allowing runs in the first five innings consistently. The Tigers’ lineup has enough pop to keep pace early against Ranger Suarez.
Houston Astros F5 -0.5 (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox
Hunter Brown has been excellent in early innings, while Cooper Criswell has struggled with consistency for Boston. The Astros’ veteran lineup should capitalize.
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Nationals vs. Brewers UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Mitchell Parker and José Quintana both favor under totals, and neither offense has been explosive recently.
Pirates vs. Rockies OVER 11.5 (-110)
Coors Field always plays over, and Antonio Senzatela has struggled significantly. The high altitude should help both offenses despite Andrew Heaney’s presence.
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Dodgers Team Total UNDER 4.5 (-115) vs. Rays
LA has struggled on the road with just a .721 OPS and ranks 27th in OPS (.673) over the last 30 days. Shane Baz has a much better expected ERA (3.64) than his surface stats suggest.
White Sox Team Total OVER 3.5 (+105) vs. Angels
Tyler Anderson has been inconsistent lately, and the White Sox need offensive production. Luis Robert is trending upward after avoiding trades.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Dodgers vs. Rays NRFI (-130)
Shane Baz has a 1.71 ERA with .195 OBA in first innings. Clayton Kershaw remains effective early, and the Rays struggle against lefties (.658 OPS).
Rangers vs. Mariners NRFI (-113)
Seattle scores first-inning runs in only 17% of home games. Logan Gilbert has a 1.94 ERA at home with .132 OBA. Jack Leiter has a 2.33 ERA in first three innings.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
Andrew Heaney (Pittsburgh Pirates) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Colorado leads MLB in strikeouts, and Heaney is due for positive regression. His expected strikeout rate (7.74 K/9) is much higher than current production (6.56 K/9).
Jack Flaherty (Detroit Tigers) Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+115)
Flaherty struggles against lefties and the Phillies have multiple dangerous left-handed bats. Citizens Bank Park can be unforgiving to pitchers.
Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners) OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105)
Schwarber has been locked in lately and faces Jack Flaherty, who’s allowed plenty of hard contact. The veteran’s power numbers support this prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140)
Vlad Jr. faces Michael Wacha, who’s struggled on the road. Toronto’s hot offense should provide plenty of opportunities.
Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays) Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125)
Manny Machado (San Diego Padres) Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Machado is riding an 8-game hit streak and faces struggling Cardinals pitching.
Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates) Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110)
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Julio Rodríguez (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+400) vs. Rangers
Robert has been scorching hot in July (.353 avg, .990 OPS) and hits .297 with .990 OPS vs. lefties. Tyler Anderson has been shaky lately.
Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) Home Run (+450) vs. Diamondbacks
Soderstrom has hit 18 of 19 homers against righties and is coming off a strong July. Anthony DeSclafani is historically prone to home runs.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NY Yankees) Home Run (+475) vs. Marlins
Narrative play facing his former team. Jazz faces former Yankees prospect Janson Junk, and Miami’s below-average bullpen provides additional value.
Nick Castellanos (Phillies) Home Run (+600) vs. Tigers3-LE
Jack Flaherty ranks in Top 10 for homers allowed per nine innings. Castellanos’ power numbers against Flaherty’s pitch mix make this excellent value.
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS ROUND ROBIN PARLAY 🏆
- Julio Rodríguez (Seattle Mariners) Home Run (+400)
- Tyler Soderstrom (+450)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+475)
- Nick Castellanos (Phillies) Home Run (+600) vs. Tigers
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $20,817 ⭐
2️⃣ BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+341)
- Boston Red Sox ML (+110)
- Logan Gilbert Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $341 ⭐
3️⃣ BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+628)
⚡ The Triple Crown (+628)
- Nationals vs. Brewers UNDER 8.5 (-110)
- Tampa Bay Rays ML (+100)
- Pirates vs. Rockies OVER 11.5 (-110)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $628 ⭐
4️⃣ BEST 4-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
🏆 The Grand Slam (+1,027)
- Seattle Mariners ML (-175)
- Toronto Blue Jays ML (-150)
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (+110)
- New York Yankees -1.5 (+105)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $1,027 ⭐
This parlay leverages strong home favorites, proven systems, and elite pitching matchups for maximum value while maintaining reasonable odds.
