Today’s MLB slate features 15 exciting games with plenty of betting opportunities across money lines, run lines, totals, props, and parlays. Based on expert analysis from top handicappers and advanced projection models, here are the most intelligent and promising bets for Tuesday’s action.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Cincinnati Reds ML (+138) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Reds are just two games back in the NL Wild Card race and have been playing exceptional baseball, going 4-1 in their last five games and 10-3 in their past 13 meetings against NL West opponents. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have struggled recently at 6-13 in their last 19 games. SportsLine’s projection model has Cincinnati winning in well over 50% of simulations, providing excellent value at +129.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+152) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pirates enter on a three-game winning streak and face struggling Giants starter Justin Verlander (1-8 record, 4.70 ERA). Expert projections show the Pirates should be closer to +115, making this a strong value play at +141.
Chicago White Sox ML (+153) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The White Sox are crushing left-handed pitching over the past month (142 wRC+, leads MLB), and they face Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who has been tipping pitches in July. With hitter-friendly weather expected in Chicago, this presents excellent upset potential.
Colorado Rockies ML (+165) vs Cleveland Guardians
📈 BEST RUN LINE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-125) vs. New York Yankees
With Aaron Judge likely on the bench and Max Fried showing command issues in recent starts, the Rays’ superior bullpen gives them great value to stay competitive. Expert projections favor Tampa Bay to keep this close.
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-125) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Rockies have been competitive on the road, and the run line provides excellent cushion against a Guardians team that can be inconsistent offensively.
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 (-105)
With 94-degree temperatures and slight breezes favoring hitters at Yankee Stadium, both teams’ bullpen struggles, and Max Fried’s recent command issues, expert projections show 9.25+ runs expected.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 (-110)
Hitter-friendly weather in Chicago with winds blowing out, two below-average bullpens, and Jesus Luzardo’s recent struggles make this a strong over play with projections showing 9.33 runs.
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8.0 (-113)
Two hot bullpens and quality starting pitching from Sandy Alcantara and Sonny Gray project just 7.13 runs in this matchup.
🏃 BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Kansas City Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-124)
Facing a struggling Atlanta pitching staff and with favorable hitting conditions, the Royals present solid value to reach their team total.
Miami Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-125)
Against Cardinals ace Sonny Gray and St. Louis’s improved bullpen, the Marlins’ inconsistent offense should struggle to generate runs.
🚫 BEST NRFI (No Run First Inning)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres NRFI (-102)
Sean Manaea has been dominant in first innings, and both teams’ top-of-the-order hitters have struggled recently. This represents excellent value for an 8.0-run total game.
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-105)
Two quality starters in Sandy Alcantara and Sonny Gray, both of whom have shown strong first-inning statistics, make this a premium NRFI play.
⚡ BEST PITCHER PROPS
Max Fried (New York Yankees) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Despite his talent, Fried has shown reduced stuff metrics (95 Location+) and has walked 3+ batters in his last two starts. The Rays’ contact-heavy approach limits strikeout upside.
Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Alcantara has found his groove since June 1, posting an improved 12.1% strikeout minus walk rate and 111 Pitching+. His stuff is trending upward at the perfect time.
Sean Manaea (NY Mets) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-139)
Facing a Padres lineup that strikes out at a high rate against left-handed pitching, Manaea presents excellent value to reach his strikeout total.
Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals) OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
🏆 BEST PLAYER PROPS
Juan Soto (NY Mets) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Soto has gone over this number in four of his last five games when favored, and he faces Ryan Bergert, who surrendered three hits including two home runs in his last start. Expert projections show 1.8 total bases.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Facing Baltimore’s bullpen in Game 2 of their doubleheader, Guerrero presents solid value with his consistent contact and power potential.
Marcus Semien (Texas Rangers) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)
Zach Neto (Los Angeles Angels) OVER 1.5 Bases (-115)
Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)
Jorge Polanco (Seattle Mariners) OVER 0.5 RBI (+140)
Jorge Polanco (Seattle Mariners) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-150)
Tommy Pham (Pittsburgh Pirates) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105)
⚾ BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NY Yankees) Anytime Home Run (+375)
With Aaron Judge sidelined, Stanton becomes the Yankees’ primary power threat. He’s hit 3 HRs in his last 6 games and faces right-hander Joe Boyle, against whom he has strong career numbers.
Xander Bogaerts (San Diego Padres) Anytime Home Run (+675)
Bogaerts homered on Sunday and is 7-for-15 lifetime against Sean Manaea with 2 doubles and 1 HR. At these odds, he presents excellent long-shot value.
Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins) Anytime Home Run (+675)
Marcus Semien (Texas Rangers) Anytime Home Run (+475)
🏆 BEST HOME RUN PROPS ROUND ROBIN PARLAY 🏆
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NY Yankees) Anytime Home Run (+375)
- Xander Bogaerts (San Diego Padres) Anytime Home Run (+675)
- Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins) Anytime Home Run (+675)
- Marcus Semien (Texas Rangers) Anytime Home Run (+475)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $29,445
This parlay focuses on three hitters in excellent spots with favorable matchups and recent power production.
💰 BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+500)
Reds ML + Pirates ML (+500)
- Cincinnati Reds ML (+138)
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+152)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $500
Both teams present excellent underdog value with strong recent form and favorable pitching matchups.
🎯 BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+1279)
- Cincinnati Reds ML (+138)
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+152)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $1,279
🔥 BEST 4-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY (+2,089)
The Grand Slam Special (+2,850)
- Cincinnati Reds ML (+138)
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+152)
- Rays vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (-105)
- Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)
1 UNIT Play Estimated Combined Odds: $100 bet potential win $2,089
A balanced parlay mixing underdog money lines, a total, and a power prop with excellent correlation potential.
⚠️ Betting Responsibly All odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly and within your means. These picks are based on expert analysis and statistical projections but are not guaranteed winners.
💡 Key Factors for Today’s Slate:
- Weather conditions favoring hitters in multiple venues
- Several struggling veteran starters in prime spots for upsets
- Strong bullpen mismatches in key games
- Multiple hitters in excellent power spots
