Looking to make some smart wagers on Friday’s MLB action? We’ve analyzed all the matchups, pitching statistics, betting trends, and player props to bring you the most promising bets for today’s games. Here’s our complete breakdown of the best MLB bets for July 25, 2025.
BEST MONEY LINE BETS
Toronto Blue Jays ML (+100) vs. Tigers
The Toronto Blue Jays have been red hot since the All-Star break, posting a league-leading .885 OPS and a 6-1 record. They’ll send Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.87 ERA) to the mound against the struggling Detroit Tigers, who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Tigers starter Keider Montero (4-2, 4.28 ERA) has been inconsistent and sits in just the 32nd percentile for expected batting average. With Toronto’s offense firing on all cylinders, they have excellent value as a slight road favorite.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+102) vs. Red Sox
The Dodgers have Evan Sheehan (1-1, 4.41 ERA) slated to start, but their powerful offense should provide enough support against Boston’s Brayan Bello (6-4, 3.23 ERA). While Bello has been solid, the Dodgers’ lineup is simply too deep and dangerous to pass up at this price point. Los Angeles has been particularly strong against right-handed pitching, and they should continue that trend at Fenway Park.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (+145) vs. Yankees
Value play alert! The Phillies have Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75 ERA) taking the mound against the Yankees’ Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA). While the Yankees have the home-field advantage, Philadelphia’s balanced lineup featuring Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner gives them excellent upset potential. Warren has struggled with consistency, and the Phillies’ patient approach at the plate could force him into early trouble.
Athletics ML (+115) at Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels ML (+110) vs Seattle Mariners
Colorado Rockies ML (+177) at Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves ML (+135) at Texas Rangers
BEST RUN LINE BETS
Twins -1.5 (+145) vs. Nationals
Minnesota sends rookie Zebby Matthews (1-2, 6.26 ERA) to face Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (4-9, 3.59 ERA). While Matthews’ ERA looks concerning, his advanced metrics (4.01 xERA, 3.32 SIERA) suggest positive regression is coming. The Twins’ lineup should provide ample run support against Gore, who has been inconsistent this season. Minnesota’s powerful offense, featuring Byron Buxton, who’s been crushing the ball lately, gives them an excellent chance to cover the run line at home.
Cardinals +1.5 (-150) vs. Padres
Nick Pivetta (10-2, 2.81 ERA) has been one of the most reliable starters in the National League this season, and he’ll face San Diego’s Miles Mikolas (5-7, 5.20 ERA). The Cardinals have the clear pitching advantage, and Mikolas has struggled with consistency all season. St. Louis should be able to generate plenty of offense against the veteran right-hander, making the run line an attractive option at this price.
↕️ BEST GAME TOTAL BETS
Mariners/Angels OVER 8 (-110)
Seattle’s Bryce Miller (8-5, 2.91 ERA) will duel with Los Angeles’ Jose Soriano (7-7, 3.83 ERA) in what should be a higher-scoring affair than the total suggests. Both teams have been trending upward offensively, and Angel Stadium has played favorably for hitters this season. The Mariners’ Cal Raleigh has been on a power surge, while the Angels have shown they can put up runs in bunches at home. The NRFI (No Run First Inning) data suggests these teams often see early scoring, making the over an attractive play.
Royals/Guardians UNDER 8 (+100)
This AL Central matchup features two pitchers who excel at preventing runs early in games. Kansas City’s Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.62 ERA) has been nearly perfect in first innings, with a remarkable 0.45 ERA in opening frames this season. Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.54 ERA), who has recorded a NRFI in 14 of 20 starts. Both teams rank in the bottom five in runs scored per game, and Kauffman Stadium tends to suppress offense. All signs point to a low-scoring affair.
Phillies/Yankees OVER 10 (-110)
This interleague matchup features Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75 ERA) against Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA) in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Both pitchers have been susceptible to the long ball, and both lineups feature multiple power threats. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge and the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber are among the league leaders in home runs, making the over an attractive option despite the relatively high total.
BEST TEAM TOTAL BETS
Astros OVER 4.5 Runs (-120)
The Houston Astros face the Oakland Athletics with Ryan Gusto (6-3, 4.46 ERA) on the mound for Oakland. Gusto has been particularly vulnerable against left-handed hitters, allowing a .386 wOBA, 2.12 HR/9, and 45.9% flyball rate. This creates a perfect matchup for Houston’s lineup featuring the red-hot Yordan Alvarez and the surprising Nick Kurtz, who has been crushing righties to the tune of a .457 wOBA and .373 ISO. The Astros should easily clear this team total.
Blue Jays OVER 4 Runs (-115)
The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break, slashing .309/.376/.506 for a league-leading .885 OPS. They’ll face Tigers starter Keider Montero, who sits in the bottom third of the league in several key pitching metrics. With Toronto’s offense firing on all cylinders and Detroit’s bullpen showing signs of fatigue, the Blue Jays should have no trouble exceeding four runs.
Cubs OVER 4.5 Runs (+105)
The Cubs face the White Sox in the Crosstown Classic with Adrian Houser (5-2, 1.89 ERA) on the mound for the South Siders. While Houser’s surface numbers look impressive, his 4.35 SIERA and 3.77 xERA suggest regression is coming. The Cubs’ lineup, featuring Michael Busch (who’s crushing righties with a .419 wOBA and .283 ISO), should be able to take advantage and put up runs against both Houser and a struggling White Sox bullpen.
BEST NRFI (No Run in First Inning)
Cubs vs. White Sox NRFI (-120)
This Crosstown Classic matchup features Shota Imanaga (7-3, 2.40 ERA) against Adrian Houser (5-2, 1.89 ERA). Imanaga has recorded a NRFI in 10 of 13 starts this season, while Houser has allowed just one first-inning run all year (0.90 ERA). The White Sox have produced a mere 28.0% YRFI rate at home, and the Cubs’ YRFI dips to 28.9% on the road. With both pitchers excelling early in games and a total of just 8 runs, this NRFI offers excellent value.
Guardians vs. Royals NRFI (-125)
Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.62 ERA) has been the king of NRFI this season, allowing just one first-inning run all year (0.45 ERA) for a remarkable 19-1 NRFI record. Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.54 ERA) has also been strong early in games, recording a NRFI in 14 of 20 starts and 8 of his last 9. The Guardians rank 27th in YRFI rate (24.5%), while the Royals have a modest 24.0% YRFI rate at home. This matchup is tailor-made for a scoreless first inning.
BEST PITCHER PROPS
MacKenzie Gore (Nationals) OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Gore faces the Minnesota Twins, who strike out at an above-average rate, especially against left-handed pitching (24.1% K-rate vs. lefties compared to 21.7% vs. righties). Gore has been a strikeout machine this season, posting an 89th-percentile strikeout rate. His numbers are even more impressive the first time through the order, where he’s produced a 31.7% strikeout rate. The Twins have been particularly vulnerable in the early innings, striking out 118 times in 423 first-inning plate appearances this season.
Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Eovaldi (7-3, 1.58 ERA) has been dominant for Texas this season and faces a Braves lineup that tends to strike out at an above-average clip. The veteran right-hander has excellent command of his splitter, which should generate plenty of swings and misses against Atlanta’s aggressive hitters. With the Rangers fighting to stay in playoff contention, expect Eovaldi to go deep into the game and rack up the strikeouts.
BEST PLAYER PROPS
Bryce Harper (Phillies) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-150)
Harper faces Yankees starter Will Warren, who has struggled with consistency this season (4.91 ERA). The Phillies slugger has been on a tear lately and performs well in the spotlight of big games like this Yankees-Phillies matchup. With Harper’s combination of power and on-base ability, he should easily clear this combined total.
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135)
Schwarber has been one of baseball’s most consistent power threats, and he’ll have the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium working in his favor. Will Warren has been susceptible to left-handed power, making this an ideal matchup for Schwarber. His ability to work walks and hit for power gives him multiple paths to clearing this prop.
Corey Seager (Rangers) OVER 1.5 Hits (+195)
Seager is batting .275 on the season with 15 home runs and 38 RBI. The Rangers shortstop has been particularly effective at home and against right-handed pitching. While the Braves have solid pitching, Seager’s consistent approach at the plate and ability to use all fields makes this a strong value play at +195 odds.
Gleyber Torres (Detroit Tigers) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (New York Yankees) OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145)
BEST HOME RUN PROPS
Cal Raleigh (Mariners) to Hit a Home Run (+270)
Raleigh has been displaying impressive power lately and faces Angels right-hander Jose Soriano (7-7, 3.83 ERA). Soriano has allowed 1.2 HR/9 this season, and Angel Stadium has been playing favorable for power hitters. As a switch-hitter, Raleigh has the platoon advantage, and his massive raw power makes him one of the best values on the board at +270.
Michael Busch (Cubs) to Hit a Home Run (+340)
Busch has been crushing right-handed pitching this season, posting a .419 wOBA, 175 wRC+, and .283 ISO against righties. He’ll face White Sox starter Adrian Houser, who has been overperforming his underlying metrics (1.89 ERA vs. 4.35 SIERA). Over the last 30 days, Busch has tallied the 13th-highest average exit velocity (93.8 MPH) and 16th-best barrel rate (20.0%) in baseball. His combination of launch angle and exit velocity makes him an excellent home run candidate.
Nick Kurtz (Athletics) to Hit a Home Run (+300)
Kurtz has been on an absolute tear, posting the highest average exit velocity (96.7 MPH) in baseball over the last 30 days. He also ranks in the top six in barrel rate (26.3%) and hard-hit rate (61.4%) during that span. He faces Houston’s Ryan Gusto, who struggles mightily against left-handed hitters (.386 wOBA, 2.12 HR/9). Kurtz’s power metrics are simply too impressive to ignore at this price.
Jo Adell (Los Angeles Angels) to Hit a Home Run (+400)
George Springer (Toronto Blue Jays) to Hit a Home Run (+450)
Manny Machado (San Diego Padres) to Hit a Home Run (+340)
🏆BEST HOME RUN PROPS ROUND ROBIN PARLAY🏆
- Cal Raleigh (Mariners) to Hit a Home Run (+270)
- Michael Busch (Cubs) to Hit a Home Run (+340)
- Manny Machado (Padres) to Hit a HR (+340)
- Jo Adell (Los Angeles Angels) to Hit a Home Run (+400)
2-3-4 ROUND ROBIN 11 bests 0.1 UNIT Each leg. Total 1.1 Units Play Estimated Combined Odds: $110 bet potential win $8,038
2️⃣ BEST 2-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
Blue Jays ML (-106) + Phillies ML (+136) (+356)
This two-team money line parlay combines the Blue Jays, who have been baseball’s hottest team since the All-Star break, with the Phillies, who offer excellent value as underdogs against the Yankees. Toronto faces a struggling Tigers team that’s lost 10 of 11 games, while Philadelphia has the offensive firepower to overcome New York. The combination provides a very attractive return at better than 3-to-1 odds.
3️⃣ BEST 3-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
Guardians/Royals NRFI (-125) + Cubs/White Sox NRFI (-120) + Marlins/Brewers NRFI (-125) (+507)
This three-leg NRFI parlay focuses on pitchers who excel in first innings. The Royals’ Michael Wacha has allowed just one first-inning run all season, while the Guardians’ Gavin Williams has recorded NRFIs in 8 of his last 9 starts. The White Sox and Cubs both feature pitchers with excellent first-inning stats, and the Brewers-Marlins game pairs All-Star Freddy Peralta with Cal Quantrill, who despite overall struggles has been surprisingly effective early in games. All three matchups feature teams that struggle to score early, making this a solid value at 5-to-1 odds.
4️⃣ BEST 4-LEG PARLAY OF THE DAY
Brewers ML (-165) + Cubs ML (-140) + MacKenzie Gore OVER 6.5 Ks (-115) + Michael Busch to Hit a HR (+310) (+1495)
This four-leg parlay combines two money line favorites with strong pitcher/batter props. The Brewers have All-Star Freddy Peralta on the mound against the struggling Marlins, while the Cubs face their crosstown rivals with Shota Imanaga taking on the White Sox. MacKenzie Gore should rack up strikeouts against a Twins lineup that’s prone to whiffing, especially against lefties. Finally, Michael Busch has been crushing right-handed pitching and faces a starter in Adrian Houser who’s due for regression. At nearly 15-to-1 odds, this parlay offers tremendous value.
