The Territorial Cup rivalry reaches a fever pitch as the Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils prepare for their 99th meeting on Black Friday. For the first time since 2014, both programs enter with eight wins, creating a matchup with profound implications for the Big 12 Conference championship race and potential bowl positioning. The stakes have rarely been higher in this storied rivalry, with Arizona leading the all-time series 51-46-1, according to Arizona Sports.

This year’s Territorial Cup represents a pivotal moment for both programs. Arizona State sits at No. 20 in the College Football Playoff rankings, still harboring outside hopes of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game, while No. 25 Arizona has experienced a remarkable turnaround under second-year head coach Brent Brennan. The Wildcats have won four consecutive games heading into this rivalry showdown, averaging over 46 points per game during that stretch, as reported by ESPN.

The atmosphere in Tempe promises to be electric. Both teams enter with identical 8-3 records, marking only the third time since 1975 that the rivals have combined for 16 wins entering the Territorial Cup, according to Arizona Sports. Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham emphasized the magnitude of the occasion: “This should be one of the best environments in college football this weekend. You’ve got two really good football teams playing in a rivalry game… this is what you want rivalry games to be.”

The injury situation heavily favors Arizona entering Friday’s contest. The Wildcats may get back three key contributors in Cole, Craig, and Savea, who are all listed as questionable according to Zona Zealots. Meanwhile, Arizona State faces significant adversity with the season-ending loss of starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who suffered a foot injury and is reportedly exploring transfer portal options. Backup Jeff Sims has stepped into the starting role and led the Sun Devils to three consecutive victories, including an impressive 42-17 road win over Colorado, as noted by ESPN.

Perfect football weather awaits in Tempe on Friday night. With temperatures sitting at a comfortable 69 degrees Fahrenheit and clear skies forecasted, conditions will be ideal for both teams to execute their game plans without weather-related concerns, according to ESPN’s game page. The pleasant evening conditions should create an electric atmosphere at Mountain America Stadium, where a capacity crowd is expected for this Black Friday showdown. Neither team will face wind or precipitation challenges, meaning offensive coordinators can open up their full playbooks without environmental limitations.

Both teams enter this marquee matchup ranked in the College Football Playoff Top 25 for the first time since 2014, when both programs were also 8-3. Arizona State holds a slight edge at No. 20 compared to Arizona’s No. 25 ranking, reflecting the Sun Devils’ superior conference record of 6-2 versus the Wildcats’ 5-3 mark. According to Arizona Desert Swarm, Arizona entered the CFP rankings for the first time this season on November 25, joining five Big 12 schools in the latest Top 25. Arizona State still maintains mathematical hopes of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game, though they would need help from other conference results, as noted by Arizona Sports.

The momentum trends heavily favor Arizona entering Friday’s showdown. The Wildcats have won four straight games by an average margin of 28.5 points, including dominant victories over Colorado (52-17) and Baylor (41-17), according to ESPN. Their only losses since October came in overtime to then-No. 14 BYU and by three points at Houston. Meanwhile, Arizona State has also won three consecutive games but faces the significant challenge of playing without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. The predictive metrics from ESPN Analytics give Arizona State a slight 51.3% win probability compared to Arizona’s 48.7%, making this essentially a toss-up game.

The head coaching matchup features two rising stars who have engineered impressive turnarounds in their second seasons. Brent Brennan, hired in January 2024 with a five-year, $17.5 million contract according to Wikipedia, has transformed Arizona from a 4-8 program to an 8-3 contender. His decision to bring in new coordinators proved pivotal, with offensive coordinator Seth Doege from Marshall and the promotion of Danny Gonzales to defensive coordinator creating a “new identity” for the Wildcats, as reported by KGUN9.

Kenny Dillingham, at just 35 years old, represents one of the youngest head coaches in major college football. According to Wikipedia, Dillingham has maintained his commitment to Arizona State despite being linked to multiple high-profile coaching searches, including Florida and LSU. His energy and recruiting acumen have revitalized the Sun Devils program, and he emphasized the significance of this rivalry game: “This should be one of the best environments in college football this weekend,” per Arizona Sports.

The defensive matchup presents contrasting philosophies. Arizona’s 3-3-5 scheme under Danny Gonzales prioritizes preventing quality drives and has been remarkably effective in second-half situations, while Arizona State’s more aggressive approach under Brian Ward focuses on creating turnovers and explosive plays. The Sun Devils rank 2nd in the Big 12 in run defense, allowing just 119.3 yards per game according to Arizona Desert Swarm, which could pose problems for an Arizona rushing attack that has averaged 180.5 yards during their four-game winning streak. Conversely, Arizona’s pass defense has been stout, which could limit Arizona State backup quarterback Jeff Sims’ effectiveness through the air.

Both teams enter the Territorial Cup riding momentum from impressive Week 13 victories. Arizona’s 41-17 demolition of Baylor marked their fourth straight win and demonstrated the Wildcats’ ability to make second-half adjustments after falling behind early. The offensive explosion, combined with a defense that pitched a shutout over the final three quarters, has Arizona playing their most complete football of the season, according to ESPN’s schedule page.

Arizona State’s 42-17 road triumph over Colorado showcased the Sun Devils’ ground-and-pound identity without their starting quarterback. Running back Raleek Brown’s 255-yard performance highlighted ASU’s ability to impose their will physically, and Jeff Sims avoided turnovers while managing the game effectively. The victory was ASU’s third consecutive win and improved their road record to 3-2 for the season, as noted by Sun Devil Athletics. The Sun Devils’ ability to win convincingly on the road without their starting quarterback demonstrates the team’s depth and resilience.

The motivation edge may slightly favor Arizona in this matchup. The Wildcats are playing with “house money” as underdogs despite being favored, having already exceeded expectations with an 8-3 record. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by ruining Arizona State’s championship hopes. According to Sporting News, “both teams arrive ranked and motivated,” but Arizona’s role as spoiler may give them a psychological advantage. The Wildcats are hungry to avenge last year’s 49-7 embarrassment and prove their legitimacy as a top-25 program.

Arizona State, while highly motivated by championship aspirations, faces the challenge of maintaining focus amid external distractions. Coach Kenny Dillingham addressed these concerns directly, emphasizing that “Priority No. 1 for ASU” is taking care of business against Arizona, as reported by Action Network. The Sun Devils demonstrated their ability to block out noise with their convincing road win at Colorado, but the stakes are even higher now. The presence of a raucous home crowd should provide additional motivation for the Sun Devils to protect their home turf and keep their championship dreams alive.