When betting on Super Bowl prop bets, the ones with the highest percentage of winning are typically those with binary outcomes (Yes/No) or low variance. Here are some prop bets with historically strong winning percentages:
1. Coin Toss – 50% Chance
- Bet: Heads or Tails
- Why? It’s a pure 50/50 bet with no house edge besides juice.
- Best Strategy: If sportsbooks offer even odds (+100), this is a fair bet.
2. First Drive – No Touchdown (~65-70%)
- Bet: First drive result = Punt, Field Goal Attempt, or Turnover
- Why? Teams start cautiously, and historically, around 65-70% of opening drives don’t result in a TD.
3. Successful 2-Point Conversion – NO (~70-75%)
- Bet: Will there be a successful 2-point conversion? → NO
- Why? Only about 25-30% of 2-point conversion attempts are successful in NFL history.
4. Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards (~75%)
- Bet: Shortest TD under 1.5 yards
- Why? Penalties, pass interference in the end zone, and goal-line carries often lead to 1-yard touchdowns.
5. No Safety in the Game (~85-90%)
- Bet: Will there be a safety? → NO
- Why? Safeties are rare, with only 9 in Super Bowl history (~15% chance per game).
6. Will There Be an Overtime? – NO (~90%)
- Bet: Will the game go to OT? → NO
- Why? Only one Super Bowl (LI) has ever gone to OT (1 out of 57 = ~1.75% probability).
Best Strategy
- Avoid long-shot bets like “First player to score a TD” (too much variance).
- Stick to Yes/No props with historical trends in your favor.
- Compare odds across sportsbooks for best value.
Would you like any Super Bowl-specific player props or team-based props?
